Source:  WattsUp

SPPI:  See also http://sppiblog.org/news/dr-ryan-n-maues-2010-global-tropical-cyclone-activity-update

NOAA Still Expects Active Atlantic Hurricane Season; La Niña Develops

Image from NOAA/NESDIS – added by Anthony for reference – not part of original press release – click to enlarge

The Atlantic Basin remains on track for an active hurricane season, according to the scheduled seasonal outlook update issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. With the season’s peak just around the corner – late August through October – the need for preparedness plans is essential.

NOAA also announced today that, as predicted last spring, La Niña has formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This favors lower wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storm clouds to grow and organize. Other climate factors pointing to an active hurricane season are warmer-than-average water in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, and the tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in unison, leading to more active seasons.

“August heralds the start of the most active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season and with the meteorological factors in place, now is the time for everyone living in hurricane prone areas to be prepared,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. (more…)

From The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley

• A reader of the SPPI Blog has seen an article in Britain’s Sunday Times pointing out that Al Gore has now been shown to have been wrong in claiming that hurricanes will become stronger or more frequent if and when “global warming” resumes. The reader asks for some scientific background. We are always happy to answer questions of this kind. Here is our reply.

Dear Enquirer, – Thank you for your enquiry. The IPCC, in its 2007 Fourth Assessment Report, came to its alarmist conclusions that hurricane frequency and intensity might worsen as a result of “global warming” because it relied, in part, upon a paper by Webster et al. which showed the hurricane record since 1970. This date, frankly, was cherry-picked, both by Webster and by the IPCC. (more…)