Posts Tagged ‘Roy Spencer’

Life on Earth: Principal control knob governing Earth’s temperature

Saturday, April 26th, 2014

Source: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/04/life-on-earth-principal-control-knob-governing-earths-temperature/

by Roy Spencer

The title of this post is a purposeful play on the title of a 2010 paper by Lacis, Schmidt, Rind, and Ruedy, entitled Atmospheric CO2: Principal control knob governing Earth’s temperature.

In that paper, the authors claimed that the existence of CO2 is what provides enough warming to keep the Earth from becoming an ice planet. They also claim that, because CO2 is “non-condensing” (whereas water vapor, Earth’s most abundant greenhouse gas, does condense) this gives it special status as some sort of primary control knob governing Earth temperatures.

That latter argument has never quite convinced me of anything…both CO2 and water vapor have various sources and sinks, and just because water vapor goes through a phase change and CO2 doesn’t is, in my mind, irrelevant. Yes, the CO2 source/sink processes act more slowly than the water vapor ones (evaporation and precipitation) do, but on the long time scales of Earth’s history, who cares? (more…)

Skeptical Arguments that Don’t Hold Water

Saturday, April 26th, 2014

Source: http://www.drroyspencer.com/

Dr. Roy Spencer

Dr. Roy Spencer

by Roy Spencer

There are some very good arguments for being skeptical of global warming predictions. But the proliferation of bad arguments is becoming almost dizzying.

I understand and appreciate that many of the things we think we know in science end up being wrong. I get that. But some of the alternative explanations I’m seeing border on the ludicrous.

So, here’s my Top 10 list of stupid skeptic arguments. I’m sure there are more, and maybe I missed a couple important ones. Oh well.

My obvious goal here is not to change minds that are already made up, which is impossible (by definition), but to reach 1,000+ (mostly nasty) comments in response to this post. So, help me out here! (more…)

Time to push back against the global warming Nazis

Saturday, February 22nd, 2014

Source: Global warming

Dr. Roy Spencer

Dr. Roy Spencer

Yeah, somebody pushed my button.

When politicians and scientists started calling people like me “deniers”, they crossed the line. They are still doing it.

They indirectly equate (1) the skeptics’ view that global warming is not necessarily all manmade nor a serious problem, with (2) the denial that the Nazi’s extermination of millions of Jews ever happened.

Too many of us for too long have ignored the repulsive, extremist nature of the comparison. It’s time to push back. (more…)

“Extreme weather” does not justify extreme political agenda

Wednesday, October 30th, 2013

Source:  All Alabama  extreme weather

by Senator Sessions

It has been eight years since the last major hurricane struck the United States—a lull that experts call an “extended and intense hurricane drought,” the longest such drought since reliable records began in the 19th century.

This is welcome news for Alabamians. The nation still remembers Hurricane Camille (a Category 5 storm) that hit our region in 1969. Hurricane Frederic (a Category 3 storm) made landfall at Dauphin Island in September 1979, leaving widespread devastation and a tree on the roof of my home in Mobile. Hurricane Opal (a Category 4 storm) struck Alabama in October 1995. And it doesn’t take a major hurricane to cause tremendous damage, as “Superstorm Sandy” demonstrated.

We face other forms of extreme weather too, like droughts, floods, and tornado outbreaks that can leave a wide path of destruction. Extreme weather happens, and we should all take common-sense, cost-effective steps to plan, prepare, and respond. The federal government has a key role to play there.

But the Obama Administration, congressional Democrats, and other climate alarmists are now pointing to extreme weather in a desperate attempt to promote their political agendas at the expense of hardworking Americans. (more…)

Rush: Global Warming Scientists — We Were Wrong

Tuesday, September 17th, 2013

Source:  Rush LimbaughBlunder-cover-vsmall

BEGIN TRANSCRIPT

RUSH:  I have a bunch of global warming news in the Stack that I did not get to yesterday. It’s about the IPCC, the United Nations unit, I guess, that is the repository for the hoax.  You know the University of East Anglia in Britain.  Well, the hoaxers are there, but they reported to the UN, this guy at Penn State with his fake hockey stick graph.  These guys all reported to the IPCC.

All of these models that they constructed over the years predicted calamity by now, and the calamity never happened. I was still living in California 1985, and I’m watching This Week with David Brinkley on Sunday morning, and there’s this guy named Oppenheimer, and he’s a global warming guy. He’s saying, “We’ve got 20 years!” This is 1985, and he says, “We’ve got 20 years! I don’t know if we’re right, we’re not sure if we’re right, but we can’t take the chance! (more…)

Senate EPW Hearing: “Climate Change: It’s Happened Before”

Sunday, July 21st, 2013

Source: Global Warming

by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

OK, so yesterday’s hearing really was entitled, “Climate Change: It’s Happening Now”. I like my title better.

In this exceedingly rare photo of me actually cracking a smile, note my subliminal shout out to the “Coke” brothers (whom I’ve never met, btw…I don’t even know what they do):
Spencer-EPW-testimony-7-18-2013

From the opening remarks made by the Democrats on the Environment and Public Works (EPW) Committee, apparently you can see climate change yourself just by looking in your backyard, or seeing how far from shore fishermen must go now to catch fish, or even (help me with the logic on this one) the fact that smoking causes cancer.

I just submitted my updated written testimony (Spencer_EPW_Written_Testimony_7_18_2013_updated) to include the following chart (Click for full size):
2000-yr-temperature-variations

This chart illustrates that, yes, we are currently warm, but not significantly warmer than the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) or the Roman Warm Period (RWP). So how is it we know today’s warmth is human-caused, when the last two warm periods couldn’t have been caused by humans? Hmmm? (more…)

Spencer: UAH global temperature down significantly

Sunday, May 5th, 2013

Source:  Wattsup?

Dr. Roy Spencer reports:

Our Version 5.5 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2013 is +0.10 deg. C, down from +0.18 deg. C in March (click for large version):
UAH_LT_1979_thru_Apr_2013_v5.5
Not surprisingly, the cooling appears to be confined to the Northern Hemisphere…the global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 16 months are: (more…)

John Christy on Summer Heat and James Hansen’s PNAS Study

Monday, August 20th, 2012

Source:  Global Warming Org

Dr. John Christy

In a recent study published in Procedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), NASA scientist James Hansen and two colleagues find that whereas “extremely hot” summer weather ”practically did not exist” during 1951-1980, such weather affected between 4% and 13% of the Northern Hemisphere land area during 2006-2011. The researchers infer that human-caused global warming is “loading” the “climate dice” towards extreme heat anomalies. They conclude with a “high degree of confidence” that the 2003 European heat wave, the 2010 Russian heat wave, and the 2011 Texas-Oklahoma drought were a “consequence of global warming” and have (as Hansen put it in a recent op-ed) ”virtually no explanation other than climate change.”

In a recent post, I reviewed studies finding that the aforementioned anomalies were chiefly due to natural variability. In another post, I summarized an analysis by Patrick Michaels and Chip Knappenberger, who conclude that “the 2012 drought conditions, and every other [U.S.] drought that has come before, is the result of natural processes, not human greenhouse gas emissions.” (more…)

Antarctic Temperature Trends

Friday, January 6th, 2012

Source: World Climate Report

Almost exactly two three years ago, a prominent paper became a media darling as it, according to the alarmist website Real Climate “appeared to reverse the ‘Antarctic cooling’ meme that has been a staple of disinformation efforts for a while now.”

The Nature paper, by Eric Steig and colleagues, made the cover on the January 22, 2009 issue. (more…)

Can We Really Call Climate Science A Science?

Thursday, September 22nd, 2011

Source: Forbes

Animal farm - Napoleon

Soviet Politburo September 8, 1927

“Trotsky: Let us present our platform to the party congress. What are you afraid of?

Stalin: Comrade Trotsky demands equality between the Central Committee and his opposition group. In whose name do you speak so insolently?

Trotsky ally: Why are you trying to hide our platform? What does this say about your courage?

Stalin: We are not prepared to turn the party into a discussion club.” (more…)

Spencer on ocean heat

Thursday, August 11th, 2011

Is Gore’s Missing Heat Really Hiding in the Deep Ocean?

August 7th, 2011 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

NOTE: For those who are offended by my bringing up Al Gore in this post (but are apparently not offended by Gore falsely accusing scientists like me of being ‘global warming deniers’), I suggest you just focus on the evidence I present. You are invited to offer an alternative explanation for the evidence, but I will not allow you to divert attention from it through irrelevant “copy and paste” factoids you have gathered from other scientific publications. If you persist, I will be forced to adopt the RealClimate tactic of deleting comments, which so far I have been able to avoid on this blog. We’ll just call it “fighting fire with fire”.

As I and others have pointed out, the 20th Century runs of the IPCC climate models have, in general, created more virtual warming in the last 50 years than the real climate system has warmed.

That statement is somewhat arguable, though, since the modelers can run a number of realizations, each with its own “natural” year-to-year internal climate variability, and get different temperature trends for any given 50-year period. (more…)

Fallout from Our Paper: The Empire Strikes Back

Sunday, July 31st, 2011

Source:  Wattsup

by Roy Spencer

LiveScience.com posted an article yesterday where the usual IPCC suspects (Gavin Schmidt, Kevin Trenberth, and Andy Dessler) dissed our recent paper in in the journal Remote Sensing.

Given their comments, I doubt any of them could actually state what the major conclusion of our paper was.

For example, Andy Dessler told LiveScience:

“He’s taken an incorrect model, he’s tweaked it to match observations, but the conclusions you get from that are not correct…”

Well, apparently Andy did not notice that those were OBSERVATIONS that disagreed with the IPCC climate models. And our model can quantitatively explain the disagreement. (more…)

Global SST Update: Still No Sign of Resumed Warming

Monday, July 11th, 2011

Source:  Global Warming

by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

Here’s the global average sea surface temperature (SST) update from AMSR-E on NASA’s Aqua satellite, updated through yesterday, July 7, 2011:

The anomalies are relative the existing period of record, which is since June 2002.

As can be seen, the SSTs have not quite recovered from the coolness of the recent La Nina.

Something else I track is the ocean cloud water anomalies, also from AMSR-E, which I have calibrated in terms of anomalies in reflected sunlight based upon Aqua CERES data: (more…)

The Cost of Political Pseudo-Science Shown In Two Examples

Tuesday, June 7th, 2011

Source:  Red State

Surely it’s time for climate-change deniers to have their opinions forcibly tattooed on their bodies.

- Richard Glover (HT:National Times.Com)

Richard Glover and Dr. Donald Brown are two very different men, in different nations, who work towards a common goal. Each man believes that human pollution has driven a series of chemical and physical changes in the Earth’s atmosphere. Each man believes this will damage the world around us and must be fought. Neither man has any ability to objectively prove their belief. Neither man will let that lack of knowledge stand in the way of enforcing their views upon others. Both men indulge in unethical behavior that demonstrates yet another cost that pseudo-science imposes on modern society. (more…)

Weak Warming of the Oceans 1955-2010 Implies Low Climate Sensitivity

Thursday, May 19th, 2011

Source:  Global Warming

by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

Since the issue of deep ocean warming (below 700 m depth) has been raised in the comments section, I have re-run the forcing-feedback model for the following two observations: 1) a net 50 year warming of 0.06 deg. C for the 0-2000 meter layer, and (2) a surface warming of 0.6 deg. C over the same period. The results suggest a net feedback parameter of 3 W m-2 K-1, which corresponds to a climate sensitivity of 1.3 deg. C from 2XCO2, which is below the 1.5 deg. C lower limit the IPCC has placed on future warming.

Weak Warming of the Oceans 1955-2010 Implies Low Climate Sensitivity

Assuming that the Levitus record of global oceanic heat content increase is anywhere near accurate, what might it tell us about climate sensitivity; e.g., how much global warming we might expect from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations? As we will see, the oceans have not warmed nearly as much as would be expected if the climate system really is as sensitive as the IPCC claims. (more…)