Source: CO2 Science
Based on simulations provided by mathematical models, climate alarmists generally predict more frequent and more severe floods in response to global warming. In this summary we examine real-world data relative to this claim as it pertains to Asia.
Beginning with a study that covered the entire continent, Cluis and Laberge (2001) analyzed the flow records of 78 rivers distributed throughout the entire Asia-Pacific region to see if there had been any enhancement of Earth’s hydrologic cycle coupled with an increase in variability that might have led to more floods between the mean beginning and end dates of the flow records: 1936 ± 5 years and 1988 ± 1 year, respectively. Over this period, the two scientists determined that mean river discharges were unchanged in 67% of the cases investigated; and where there were trends, 69% of them were downward. In addition, maximum river discharges were unchanged in 77% of the cases investigated; and where there were trends, 72% of them were downward. Consequently, and contrary to climate-alarmist claims of global warming leading to more frequent and more severe flooding, the two researchers observed no changes in both of these flood characteristics in the majority of the rivers they studied; and where there were changes, more of them were of the type that typically leads to less flooding and less severe floods. (more…)