Posts Tagged ‘Judith Curry’

Nate Silvers’ 538: inconvenient statistics

Saturday, March 22nd, 2014

Source: Climate Etc.

Dr. Judith Curry

Dr. Judith Curry

by Judith Curry

If Silver’s data-drive approach gets in the way of your political aims, so much the better. – Michael Brendan Dougherty

Nate Silver has a new blog FiveThirtyEight (well a relaunch and extension of his blog, which is now owned by ESPN).  What he is trying to accomplish is outlined in the post What the Fox Knows - basically he is promoting ‘data journalism’ .

I’m a Fan of Nate, and I applaud what he is trying to do.  But there have been a number of criticisms, and none more vociferous than the choice to publish an article by Roger Pielke Jr. (more…)

Study: Earth was warmer in Roman, Medieval times

Friday, December 13th, 2013

Source: Daily Caller

Roman-Soldier

[SPPI Note:  See extensive research papers on Medieval Warm Period here]

If you think the Earth is hot now, try wearing plate armor in the Middle Ages.

A Swedish study found that the planet was warmer in ancient Roman times and the Middle Ages than today, challenging the mainstream idea that man-made greenhouse gas emissions are the main drivers of global warming.

The study, by scientist Leif Kullman, analyzed 455 “radiocarbon-dated mega-fossils” in the Scandes mountains and found that tree lines for different species of trees were higher during the Roman and Medieval times than they are today. Not only that, but the temperatures were higher as well. (more…)

Social cost of carbon

Sunday, November 24th, 2013

Source:  Climate Etc.  idso positive CO2

by Judith Curry

The debate on the social cost of carbon is heating up.

White House

The White House has recently issued a Technical Support Document on the Social Cost of Carbon [link].   Excerpts from the Executive Summary:

The purpose of the “social cost of carbon” (SCC) estimates presented here is to allow agencies to incorporate the social benefits of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions into cost-benefit analyses of regulatory actions that impact cumulative global emissions. The SCC is an estimate of the monetized damages associated with an incremental increase in carbon emissions in a given year. It is intended to include (but is not limited to) changes in net agricultural productivity, human health, property damages from increased flood risk, and the value of ecosystem services due to climate change.  (more…)

Implications for climate models of their disagreement with observations

Friday, November 1st, 2013

Source:  Climate Etc.  curry2

by Judith Curry

How should we interpret the growing disagreement between observations and climate model projections in the first decades of the 21st century?  What does this disagreement imply for the epistemology of climate models?

One issue that I want to raise is the implications of the disagreement between climate models and observations in the 21st century, as per Fig 11.25 from the AR5.

Panel b) indicates that the IPCC views the implications to be that some climate models have a CO2 sensitivity too high — they lower the black vertical bar (indicating the likely range from climate models) to account for this.  And they add the ad hoc red stippled range, which has a slightly lower slope and lowered range that is consistent with the magnitude of the current model/obs discrepancy.  The implication seems that the expected warming over the last decade is lost, but future warming will continue at the expected (albeit slightly lower) pace. (more…)

The IPCC: Looking 95% Foolish

Wednesday, October 30th, 2013

Source:  No Frakking Consensusdonna

by Donna Laframboise

As the gap between its models and reality has grown, the IPCC has become more adamant that its conclusions are correct – rather than more cautious.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims to be a rational, scientific body. But when scientists worthy of the name are wrong, they admit it. The IPCC does the opposite.

Once you peel multiple layers off the global warming onion, you’re left with computer models. According to these models, the small amount of warming that results when humans emit CO2 into the atmosphere is supposed to be amplified by other factors. It isn’t the CO2 itself but this amplification that the IPCC believes will lead to dramatic rises in temperature and dangerous consequences. (more…)

The Big Lie: Marotzke’s Broken Promise

Wednesday, October 2nd, 2013

Source: Climate Audit  Big-Lie

A few days ago, Jochem Marotzke, an IPCC Coordinating Lead Author and, according to Der Spiegel, “president of the German Climate Consortium and Germany’s top scientific representative in Stockholm”, was praised (e.g. Judy Curry here) for his promise that the IPCC would address the global warming hiatus “head on” despite pressures from green factions in government ministries and for his declaration that “climate researchers have an obligation not to environmental policy but to the truth”.

However, it turned out that Marotzke’s promise was merely another trick. Worse, it turns out that Marotzke already knew that the report would not properly deal with the hiatus – which, in a revealing interview, Marotzke blamed on an ” oversight” (h/t to Judy Curry here). Worse, it turns out that IPCC authors were themselves complicit during the plenary session in causing information about the discrepancy between models and observations to be withheld from the SPM, as shown by thus far undiscussed minutes of the IPCC plenary session. (more…)

UN climate change report dismisses slowdown in global warming

Friday, September 27th, 2013

Source:  FOX NEWS

Dr. John Christy

Dr. John Christy

The Earth has changed in “unprecedented ways” since 1950, the U.N. says, and its scientists are 95 percent certain that humans are responsible.

Yet the planet has largely stopped warming over the past 15 years, data shows — and a landmark report released Friday by the U.N.’s climate group could not explain why the mercury has stopped rising.

Global surface temperatures rose rapidly during the 70s, but have been relatively flat over the past decade and a half, rising only 0.05 degrees Celsius (0.09 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade according to data from the U.K.’s weather-watching Met Office, a trend current models of the world’s climate have been unable to predict. A draft of the report leaked in early September acknowledged that trend and put it bluntly: We simply can’t explain it.

“Models do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 10–15 years.”

But a final version of the report released Friday morning by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) strips out the failure of models and explains away the downward trend. (more…)

And now it’s global COOLING! Record return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 60% in a year

Monday, September 9th, 2013

Source:  UK Mail

  • Almost a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than in 2012
  • BBC reported in 2007 global warming would leave Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013
  • Publication of UN climate change report suggesting global warming caused by humans pushed back to later this month

A chilly Arctic summer has left nearly a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than at the same time last year – an increase of 60 per cent.

The rebound from 2012’s record low comes six years after the BBC reported that global warming would leave the Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013. (more…)

After Climategate . . . never the same (?)

Monday, August 12th, 2013

Source: Climate, Etc.

Dr. Judith Curry

Dr. Judith Curry

by Judith Curry

Has Climategate been a good thing? – Mike Hulme

Mike Hulme has posted an insightful essay entitled ‘After Climategate . . . Never the Same’, which is a chapter from his forthcoming book ‘Exploring climate change through science and society: an anthology of Mike Hulme’s essays, interviews and speeches.’  Excerpts:

One of the consequences of a public science controversy is to unsettle previously held convictions and certainties, beliefs which had been assumed but perhaps unexamined for some time.  Assumed truths and certainties were being questioned. The UK environmentalist columnist George Monbiot was an example of a high profile public commentator whose beliefs were clearly challenged by the emails and subsequent allegations. “No one has been as badly let down by the revelations in these emails as those of us who have championed the science”, Monbiot wrote the week following: “I have seldom felt so alone.” (more…)

Idso’s Rebuttal to Scott Doney’s Senate Testimony on “Ocean Acidification”

Sunday, July 21st, 2013

Source: Climate Etc. acid_test

by Judith Curry

Scott Doney’s testimony

Excerpts from Doney’s recent congressional testimony [link]

Rebuttal 

Craig Idso has written comprehensive rebuttal to the NRDC film “Acid Test: The Global Challenge of Ocean Acidification.” [link]

So what’s the story here? Are coral reefs really in their last decades of existence? Will the shells of other calcifying marine life also dissolve away during our lifetimes? The NRDC film certainly makes it appear that such is the case; but a little scientific sleuthing reveals nothing of substance in this regard. In fact, even a cursory review of the peer-reviewed scientific literature reveals that an equally strong case – if not a more persuasive one – can be made for the proposition that the ongoing rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration will actually prove a boon to calcifying marine life. Sadly, however, the NRDC chose to present an extreme one-sided, propagandized view of ocean acidification; and in this critique we present the part of the story that they clearly don’t want you to know.

[25 pages of text, 13 pages of references]

From the Conclusions: (more…)

Earth undergoing global COOLING since 2002!

Wednesday, June 19th, 2013

Source: Climate Depot  dsc00563

Forget global warming!? Earth undergoing global COOLING since 2002! Climate Scientist Dr. Judith Curry: ‘Attention in the public debate seems to be moving away from the 15-17 year ‘pause’ to the cooling since 2002’

 

Growing number of scientists are predicting global cooling: Russia’s Pulkovo Observatory: ‘We could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years’

‘Sun Sleeps’: Danish Solar Scientist Svensmark declares ‘global warming has stopped and a cooling is beginning…enjoy global warming while it lasts’

Prominent geologist Dr. Don Easterbrook warns ‘global COOLING is almost a slam dunk’ for up to 30 years or more

Australian Astronomical Society warns of global COOLING as Sun’s activity ‘significantly diminishes’

By: Climate DepotJune 15, 2013 2:55 PM

Climate Depot Exclusive Round Up of Global Cooling  predictions   (more…)

Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released… and here is the chart to prove it

Thursday, November 15th, 2012

Source:  UK Mail

Dr. Judith Curry

  • The figures reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012 there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures
  • This means that the ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996

By David Rose

The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new data released last week. 

The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures.

This means that the ‘plateau’ or ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996. Before that, temperatures had been stable or declining for about 40 years. (more…)

Climate change: no consensus on consensus

Monday, October 29th, 2012

Source: Climate Etc.

Judith Curry

by Judith Curry

The manufactured consensus of the IPCC has had the unintended consequences of distorting the science, elevating the voices of scientists that dispute the consensus, and motivating actions by the consensus scientists and their supporters that have diminished the public’s trust in the IPCC.

Our paper has just been accepted for publication.  A link to the final manuscript is provided here [consensus paper revised final].  Below is a ‘reader’s digest’ version of the main arguments made in this paper

Introduction

The United Nations initiated a scientific consensus building process with the objective of providing a robust scientific basis for climate policy, under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). The key IPCC consensus finding from its latest assessment report is this statement: (more…)

Fuzzy dice

Sunday, August 12th, 2012

Source:  Climate Etc.  

by Judith Curry

Much is being made of Hansen’s ‘loaded dice’ as a metaphor for the changing climate.  I think we should be talking about ‘fuzzy dice.’

Hansen’s PNAS paper and the Washington Post have  received a huge play in the MSM and the blogosphere.  As an example of the media hype, see this article by Seth Borenstein (once again he solicited my comments, and didn’t use them).  “This is not some scientific theory. We are now experiencing scientific fact,” Hansen told The Associated Press in an interview.  The blogosphere is also rife with critiques of Hansen’s analysis; I had an earlier critical post at Climate Etc. [here].

Lets focus in on the ‘loaded dice’ metaphor used by Hansen.

‘Loaded’ dice

Here is how Hansen explains the ‘loaded dice’ in the op-ed: (more…)

Forget global warming – it’s Cycle 25 we need to worry about

Tuesday, January 31st, 2012

Source: UK Mail Online

The supposed ‘consensus’ on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years.

The figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames in the 17th Century.

Based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997. (more…)