Posts Tagged ‘Hurricanes’

New paper at SPPI: Global Hurricane Trends

Saturday, January 18th, 2014

Source: SPPIidso - hurricane trends

Climate models have long suggested that the intensity and frequency of hurricanes or tropical cyclones (TCs) may be significantly increased in response to global warming, as noted by Free et al. (2004), who have written that “increases in hurricane intensity are expected to result from increases in sea surface temperature and decreases in tropopause-level temperature accompanying greenhouse warming,” citing in support of this statement the studies of Emanuel (1987), Henderson-Sellers et al. (1998) and Knutson et al. (1998). Before accepting this climate-model-based projection, however, it is important to see what the world of nature has to say about the issue.

http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/global_hurricane_trends.html

What happened to hurricane season? And why we should keep forecasting it…

Thursday, October 3rd, 2013

Source: Wash Posthurricane2

by Brian McNoldy

As we wrap up September, there have been just two short-lived Category 1 hurricanes in the Atlantic. Yet seasonal forecasts predicted an extremely active season. What’s going on?

Before diving into the seasonal forecasts, let’s take inventory on where the season stands.

In an average season,  8 tropical storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major (category 3 or higher) hurricane form by this date. This year, we’ve experienced 10 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, and no major hurricanes.

Though we’ve had close to the average number of total storms, most have been short-lived and/or weak. If you went out for a cup of coffee at any time this hurricane season, you would’ve missed many of them. (more…)

Roger Pielke: Hurricanes and Human Choice

Thursday, November 1st, 2012

Source:  WSJ  

Sandy was terrible, but we’re currently in a relative hurricane ‘drought.’ Connecting energy policy and disasters makes little scientific sense.

By ROGER PIELKE JR.

Hurricane Sandy left in its path some impressive statistics. Its central pressure was the lowest ever recorded for a storm north of North Carolina, breaking a record set by the devastating “Long Island Express” hurricane of 1938. Along the East Coast, Sandy led to more than 50 deaths, left millions without power and caused an estimated $20 billion or more in damage.

But to call Sandy a harbinger of a “new normal,” in which unprecedented weather events cause unprecedented destruction, would be wrong. This historic storm should remind us that planet Earth is a dangerous place, where extreme events are commonplace and disasters are to be expected. In the proper context, Sandy is less an example of how bad things can get than a reminder that they could be much worse. (more…)

Hurricane experts admit they can’t predict hurricanes early; December forecasts too unreliable

Tuesday, December 13th, 2011

Source:  The Ottawa Citizen

Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, famous across Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice of making a seasonal forecast in December because it doesn’t work.

OTTAWA — Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, famous across Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice of making a seasonal forecast in December because it doesn’t work.

William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no predictive value.

The two scientists from Colorado State University will still discuss different probabilities of hurricane seasons in December. But the shift signals how far humans are, even with supercomputers, from truly knowing what our weather will do in the long run. (more…)

Scientific case for man-made global warming fears is dead

Monday, October 24th, 2011

Source:  Washington Examiner

by Marc Morano

Many of the proponents of man-made global warming are now claiming that climate change is worse than they predicted. According to an Oct. 18, 2011, Daily Climate article, global warming activists claim that the “evidence builds that scientists underplay climate impacts,” and “if anything, global climate disruption is likely to be significantly worse than has been suggested.” (more…)

Carbon Dioxide and Earth’s Future: Pursuing the Prudent Path

Wednesday, February 9th, 2011

Source:  CO2 Science

by Craig and Sherwood Idso

Special Issue
This week we announce the release of our newest major report, Carbon Dioxide and Earth’s Future: Pursuing the Prudent Path. Based on the voluminous periodic reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the ongoing rise in the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration has come to be viewed as a monumental danger — not only to human society, but to the world of nature as well. But are the horrific “doomsday scenarios” promulgated by the climate alarmists as set-in-stone as the public is led to believe? Do we really know all of the complex and interacting processes that should be included in the models upon which these scenarios are based? And can we properly reduce those processes into manageable computer code so as to produce reliable forecasts 50 or 100 years into the future? At present, the only way to properly answer these questions is to compare climate model projections with real-world observations. Theory is one thing, but empirical reality is quite another. The former may or may not be correct, but the latter is always right. As such, the only truly objective method to evaluate climate model projections is by comparing them with real-world data. (more…)

A Brief History of Northwest Australian Tropical Cyclones

Wednesday, January 12th, 2011

Source:  CO2 Science

Reference
Goebbert, K.H. and Leslie, L.M. 2010. Interannual variability of Northwest Australian tropical cyclones. Journal of Climate 23: 4538-4555.

Background
Climate alarmists typically claim that tropical cyclones — or TCs — tend to become both more frequent and more intense as planetary temperatures rise; and as a result, scientists continually strive to develop ever better temporal histories of these particular TC characteristics for various ocean basins around the world.

What was done
Goebbert and Leslie recently examined interannual TC variability of the northwest Australian (NWAUS) sub-basin of the southeastern Indian Ocean (0-35°S, 105°-135°E) over the 39-year time period of 1970-2008, using the Woodside Petroleum Ltd. reanalysis TC dataset described by Harper et al. (2008), in order to focus on these two important TC characteristics (frequency and intensity), as well as eleven other TC metrics. (more…)

New Low: San Fran Chronicle Suggests Global Warming Caused Haiti Earthquake.

Saturday, January 8th, 2011

Source: hauntingthelibrary

Just when you thought they couldn’t possibly stoop any lower . . .

Sick global warming advocate Cameron Scott of the San Francisco Chronicle’s ‘Thin Green Line’ blog has plumbed new depths of ruthless opportunism by trying to link Haiti’s horrific earthquake to global warming.

Here’s the argument which the article offers:

At the American Geophysical Union meeting late last month, University of Miami geologist Shimon Wdowinski argued that the devastating earthquake a year ago may have been caused by a combination of deforestation and hurricanes. Climate change is spurring more, stronger hurricanes, which are fueled by warm ocean waters.

It works like this: Deforestation leaves hillsides vulnerable to erosion, which hurricanes deliver in spades. Haiti’s hills have waned to a degree, says Wdowinski, that it could affect the stability of the Earth’s crust.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/green/detail?entry_id=80278#ixzz1A80UAhIE

Yes, you read that right – they’re asking you to believe that a magnitude SEVEN earthquake was caused by “a combination of deforestation and hurricanes” brought about by you wicked, wicked people who drive cars and live in houses. (more…)

Time To Hold Environmental And Climate Doomsayers To Account

Monday, October 25th, 2010

Source:  Canada Free Press

by Dr. Tim Ball

The 1990 Greenpeace Report on Global Warming said, carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere naturally and unnaturally. They define unnatural as anything humans do. It is part of the theme of environmentalism that humans shouldn’t be here or tolerated only if they behave as they are told. The other part of the idea of unnatural is exploited to keep the people enthralled, fearful and therefore controlled. H.L.Mencken’s comment that, “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary” applies and is proof of the political nature of events presented, directly or with implication, as unnatural.

The false idea is presented out of context then left uncorrected by lack of follow up. This is especially true if the story is a prediction. We need a media vehicle to analyze the story in context followed by the aftermath. It’s time for a program on which doomsayers who profited financially or politically from false stories and predictions confronted and held to account. Here are some recent stories that proved incorrect. (more…)

No Trend in Global Hurricane Activity

Monday, October 18th, 2010

Source: World Climate Report

How much evidence will it take to quiet the claim that hurricanes are increasing in frequency due to global warming?

Global Warming crusaders are particularly fond of promoting the idea that we are having a profound impact on hurricane activity—they seem to never let an event go unclaimed. At World Climate Report (WCR), we have reviewed dozens of papers from the leading scientific journals presenting scant evidence to support a strong link between global warming and hurricane activity, and we hope you never get bored with these essays.

The literature never sleeps, and yet another major article has appeared recently in a leading journal with results well-suited for our never-ending review of this subject. (more…)

NOAA Alarmists Wrong on Hurricanes — Again

Saturday, October 9th, 2010

Source:  WattsUp

SPPI:  See also http://sppiblog.org/news/dr-ryan-n-maues-2010-global-tropical-cyclone-activity-update

NOAA Still Expects Active Atlantic Hurricane Season; La Niña Develops

Image from NOAA/NESDIS – added by Anthony for reference – not part of original press release – click to enlarge

The Atlantic Basin remains on track for an active hurricane season, according to the scheduled seasonal outlook update issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. With the season’s peak just around the corner – late August through October – the need for preparedness plans is essential.

NOAA also announced today that, as predicted last spring, La Niña has formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This favors lower wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storm clouds to grow and organize. Other climate factors pointing to an active hurricane season are warmer-than-average water in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, and the tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in unison, leading to more active seasons.

“August heralds the start of the most active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season and with the meteorological factors in place, now is the time for everyone living in hurricane prone areas to be prepared,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. (more…)

Dr. Ryan N. Maue’s 2010 Global Tropical Cyclone Activity Update

Friday, October 8th, 2010

Source: Florida State University

by Dr. Ryan Maue

Update: Current Year-to-Date analysis of Northern Hemisphere and Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) AND Power Dissipation Index (PDI) has fallen even further than during the previous 3-years. The global activity is at 33-year lows and at a historical record low where Typhoons form in the Western Pacific.

While the North Atlantic has seen 15 tropical storms / hurricanes of various intensity, the Pacific basin as a whole is at historical lows! In the Western North Pacific stretching from Guam to Japan and the Philippines and China, the current ACE value of 48 is the lowest seen since reliable records became available (1945) and is 78% below normal*. The next lowest was an ACE of 78 in 1998. See figure below for visual evidence of the past 40-years of tropical cyclone activity. (more…)

Extreme Climate Events Since 1970: Data Reveals That Most U.S. Hurricanes Less Severe

Tuesday, September 14th, 2010

Source:  C3 Headlines

Read here. Many climate alarmists have a preference to claim 1970 as the year that the global climate started to change, from one of supposed benign characteristics to the period of severe and extreme weather events that they say now exists. But is it really true that we are experiencing more extreme weather events, or is it just the typical exaggerated climate hype and lies similar to those found in Al Gore’s movie? Are the alarmist predictions wrong? (more…)

SPPI Monthly CO2 Report

Friday, August 20th, 2010

A note to our readers –

During the last few years, the desperation has become palpable among the UNIPCC, many Western governments and their lavishly-funded conscripts promoting more political centralization, massive transfers of wealth and technologies and breath-taking personal greed.

Because some of the graphs in the SPPI Monthly CO2 Report expose exaggerations, if not outright deceptions, in the UN’s IPCC reports, alarmist pro-IPCC, pro-regulatory websites have, of necessity, attacked them and their presenter, Christopher Monckton.

A response to these attacks appears in this month’s report, and also in this recent short paper posted on the SPPI website: http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/commentaries_essays/they_do_protest_too_much.html (more…)

‘Urricanes ‘ardly Hever ‘appen

Sunday, February 28th, 2010

From The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley

  • A reader of the SPPI Blog has seen an article in Britain’s Sunday Times pointing out that Al Gore has now been shown to have been wrong in claiming that hurricanes will become stronger or more frequent if and when “global warming” resumes. The reader asks for some scientific background. We are always happy to answer questions of this kind. Here is our reply.

Dear Enquirer, – Thank you for your enquiry. The IPCC, in its 2007 Fourth Assessment Report, came to its alarmist conclusions that hurricane frequency and intensity might worsen as a result of “global warming” because it relied, in part, upon a paper by Webster et al. which showed the hurricane record since 1970. This date, frankly, was cherry-picked, both by Webster and by the IPCC. (more…)

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