The British Met Office [formerly, Metrological Office] produced three reports with titles starting with “The recent pause in global warming:” David Whitehead observes that the reports may say more about the messenger than the message. Among other things, the reports imply there is nothing unusual about the current standstill. Which would come as a surprise to the EPA and its certainty in its findings. One of the models that was run multiple times reproduces the pause – which speaks to the lack of rigor in the models.
Perhaps the models can be likened to a pot of hot water in which gelatin has been dissolved. The final form depends upon the mold in which it is cooled, with temperature data being the mold.
The reports also suggest the missing heat is hiding in the deep ocean. How a warming of the atmosphere, where the greenhouse effect takes place, thousands of feet above the surface enters the deep oceans without leaving is trace is a mystery to be explained.
The reports also state that the highest level of projected warming has been reduced, and that the most likely level is reduced by 10%. Although the terms verified and validity are mentioned, there is no effort to rigorously validate the models. At least the Met Office recognizes there is a pause, which is something that the US Administration does not.
Full SEPP report here