Posts Tagged ‘F.E.L.’

Extreme Weather Heat Waves

Wednesday, June 27th, 2012

Source:  CCR

Image Source Page: http://philipclarkmusic.wordpress.com/2011/07/31/free-soul-mus

Reference

Otto, F.E.L., Massey, N., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Jones, R.G. and Allan, M.R. 2012. Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave. Geophysical Research Letters 39: L04702 doi:10.1029/2011GL05042.

The 2010 Russian heat wave was an extra-ordinary event which killed an estimated 55,000 people during July and early August of that year. The heat wave (and associated drought) also led to crop reductions in Russia by 25%, with an estimated loss in revenue of about 25 billion US dollars. Such an exceptional climate event has prompted many scientists and climate modelers in the US and UK to analyze the large-scale atmospheric sequence of events that led to this exceptionally hot spell in western Russia and, in particular, in and around the city of Moscow, all in attempt to determine if its cause was of natural or anthropogenic origin. In an earlier paper (see Dole et al., 2011) concluded that the 2010 summer Russian heat wave was mainly due to “natural internal atmospheric variability that produced and maintained an intense long-lived blocking event,” further adding that “it is very unlikely that the ‘warming’ attributable to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations contributed substantially to the heat wave.” Other scientist however, have come to a different conclusion. (more…)

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