Posts Tagged ‘CO2 climate sensitivity’

The Global Warming Statistical Meltdown

Friday, October 10th, 2014

Source: WSJ

Dr. Curry

Dr. Curry

by JUDITH CURRY

Mounting evidence suggests that basic assumptions about climate change are mistaken: The numbers don’t add up.

At the recent United Nations Climate Summit, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned that “Without significant cuts in emissions by all countries, and in key sectors, the window of opportunity to stay within less than 2 degrees [of warming] will soon close forever.” Actually, this window of opportunity may remain open for quite some time. A growing body of evidence suggests that the climate is less sensitive to increases in carbon-dioxide emissions than policy makers generally assume—and that the need for reductions in such emissions is less urgent. (more…)

New Research Finds Earth Even Less Sensitive To CO2 Than Previously Thought

Saturday, September 27th, 2014

Source: GWPF  benefits of CO2

Research Used Data From This Year’s IPCC 5th Assessment Report

London, 25 September: A new paper published in the prestigious journal Climate Dynamics find that the effect of carbon dioxide emissions on global temperatures is likely to be even smaller than previously thought.

Earlier this year, in a widely discussed report for the Global Warming Policy Foundation, climate researcher Nic Lewis and science writer Marcel Crok put forward a new estimate of the Earth’s climate sensitivity based on observational data, finding that it was much less alarming than suggested by computer simulations of the Earth’s climate.

Now, Lewis and well known American climate science professor Judith Curry have updated the Lewis and Crok report estimates using the latest empirical data, a more sophisticated methodology and an approach to accounting for uncertainties that has been described by one independent reviewer as “state of the art”. Their findings fully support the modest estimates of climate sensitivity and future warming given in the Lewis and Crok report, and compared with that report make it look even less likely that the substantially higher estimates based on computer simulations are correct. (more…)

Dialing Back the Alarm on Climate Change

Saturday, September 14th, 2013

Source: WSJ

A forthcoming report points lowers estimates on global warmingco2_and_earths_future

By MATT RIDLEY

Later this month, a long-awaited event that last happened in 2007 will recur. Like a returning comet, it will be taken to portend ominous happenings. I refer to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) “fifth assessment report,” part of which will be published on Sept. 27.

There have already been leaks from this 31-page document, which summarizes 1,914 pages of scientific discussion, but thanks to a senior climate scientist, I have had a glimpse of the key prediction at the heart of the document. The big news is that, for the first time since these reports started coming out in 1990, the new one dials back the alarm. It states that the temperature rise we can expect as a result of man-made emissions of carbon dioxide is lower than the IPPC thought in 2007.

Admittedly, the change is small, and because of changing definitions, it is not easy to compare the two reports, but retreat it is. It is significant because it points to the very real possibility that, over the next several generations, the overall effect of climate change will be positive for humankind and the planet. (more…)

A peek inside the next IPCC assessment

Saturday, July 20th, 2013

Source:  Economist

Sensitive information

“THAT report is going to scare the wits out of everyone,” said Yvo de Boer recently. He is a former United Nations chief climate negotiator and was talking about the forthcoming fifth assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). With two months to go before the assessment is to be published, however, one sign suggests it might be less terrifying than it could have been.

The sign in question is about climate sensitivity. This is the measure used by researchers of how much they expect the world’s average temperature to increase in response to particular increases in levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. According to one table from the unpublished report, which was seen by The Economist (above), at CO2 concentrations of between 425 parts per million and 485 ppm, temperatures in 2100 would be 1.3-1.7°C above their pre-industrial levels. That seems lower than the IPCC’s previous assessment, made in 2007. Then, it thought concentrations of 445-490 ppm were likely to result in a rise in temperature of 2.0-2.4°C. (more…)

Earth’s Thermal Sensitivity to a Doubling of Atmospheric CO2

Wednesday, June 27th, 2012

Source: CCR

Reference
Lindzen, R.S. and Choi, Y.-S. 2009. On the determination of climate feedbacks from ERBE data. Geophysical Research Letters 36: 10.1029/2009GL039628.

What change in the mean surface air temperature of the planet would be caused by a doubling of the air’s CO2 content? In the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, the most likely range for this thermal sensitivity parameter, as determined by numerous climate models, is something in the range of 2 to 4.5°C; yet even this significant degree of warming has been suggested by many of the world’s climate alarmists to be too small. And as a result, a great hue and cry has been raised by folks such as Al Gore, who is hard at work attempting to convince everyone that they have a moral responsibility to “save the planet” by demanding legislative actions designed to drastically reduce anthropogenic CO2emissions. (more…)

Scientist: Climate changes are not caused by greenhouse gases

Monday, January 31st, 2011

Source:  http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2011/01/scientist-climate-changes-are-not.html

Dr. Noor van Andel, former head of research at Akzo Nobel, has a new paper out showing the available data to date contradicts the notion of greenhouse gas induced global warming or ‘climate change.’ He notes that while there have been extensive efforts to ‘prove’ the ‘greenhouse’ warming theory by bringing computer models and observations into agreement, this has been done “strangely only by adjusting the measurements instead of adjusting the models,” in other words, via unscientific means. Dr. van Andel instead finds that ocean oscillations and the cosmic ray theory of Svensmark et al best explain climate changes.

CO2 and climate change
Noor van Andel, noor@xs4all.nl, 17-01-2011.

Abstract: It is shown that tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies are closely congruent to global temperature anomalies, and that over more than a century. When we understand the cooling mechanism over the tropical Pacific, and especially its CO2 dependency, we can draw conclusions for the global CO2 climate sensitivity. (more…)