Posts Tagged ‘Climate models’

A reply to Born: How to represent temperature feedbacks in a simple model

Monday, April 13th, 2015

Soure:  WUWT

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, David Legates, Willie Soon and Matt Briggs

Mr. Born has had another go at our paper Why models run hot, published in January 2015 (PDF here) in the Science Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Go to, click on “most read articles”. and ours is the all-time no. 1 by a factor of ten. It’s a good read.

Let us begin by putting Mr. Born’s criticism into context. In essence, he is saying he would have liked our simple model to be more complex. Well, he is of course free to write his own model and get it into the reviewed literature. But our simple model, when calibrated against IPCC predictions, reproduced them faithfully when we adopted its parameter values, so, given that we made it quite explicit in the paper that we were adopting a rough-and-ready approach, we saw no reason to introduce pointless complications that would, without much increase in accuracy, have reduced the utility of our model, which is that it is accessible to anyone with a pocket calculator.

Keep it simple, stupid.

Full article here:

The Global Warming Statistical Meltdown

Friday, October 10th, 2014

Source: WSJ

Dr. Curry

Dr. Curry


Mounting evidence suggests that basic assumptions about climate change are mistaken: The numbers don’t add up.

At the recent United Nations Climate Summit, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned that “Without significant cuts in emissions by all countries, and in key sectors, the window of opportunity to stay within less than 2 degrees [of warming] will soon close forever.” Actually, this window of opportunity may remain open for quite some time. A growing body of evidence suggests that the climate is less sensitive to increases in carbon-dioxide emissions than policy makers generally assume—and that the need for reductions in such emissions is less urgent. (more…)

Boycotting the U.N. climate summit – Awareness grows that faulty science would keep millions in the dark

Monday, September 22nd, 2014

Source: Wash Times 2013_year

 By Willie Soon and Christopher Monckton

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sensibly declined to attend yet another climate summit — this time called by Ban Ki-moon for Tuesday in New York under the auspices of the United Nations — which profits handsomely from much-exaggerated climate scares. Chinese President Xi Jinping and German Chancellor Angela Merkel likewise intend to skip the event.

Environmentalists have complained about Mr. Modi’s decision. They say rising atmospheric carbon dioxide will cause droughts, melt Himalayan ice, and poison lakes and waterways in the Indian subcontinent. (more…)

Climate Model Credibility Gap

Tuesday, August 19th, 2014

Source:  the Resiliant Earth

by Doug L. Hoffman

Marine and terrestrial proxy records suggest that there was a peak in global warming between 10,000 and 6,000 years ago, following the end of the last glacial period. Since the Holocene Thermal Maximum, Earth has undergone global cooling. The physical mechanism responsible for this global cooling has remained unknown and doesn’t fit in with the current CO2 based climate models. Those climate models generate a robust global annual mean warming throughout the Holocene, mainly in response to rising CO2 levels and albedo changes due to retreating of ice sheets. In other words, the models disagree with reality, and when models disagree with nature the models have a credibility gap. A new paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) says this model-data inconsistency indicates a critical reexamination of both proxy data and models is called for. (more…)

June 2014 Archive of Scientific Literature Reviews

Tuesday, July 15th, 2014

Source:  NIPCC
redwood trees

Old Trees: The Bigger They Are, The More Carbon They Sequester (3 Jun 2014)
New data overturn an old concept, revealing that “rapid growth in giant trees is the global norm” and “it appears to hold regardless of competitive environment”… Read More (more…)

AAAS’s Guide to Climate Alarmism aka ‘What We Know’

Saturday, March 22nd, 2014

Source:  Watts Up

AAAS' Climate Lie

AAAS’ Climate Lie

By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger

Back in the Bush II Administration, the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) nakedly tried to nudge the political process surrounding the passage of the environmentally-horrific ethanol fuel mandate.  It hung a large banner from the side of its Washington headquarters, picturing a corn stalk morphing into a gas pump, all surrounded by a beautiful, pristine, blue ocean.  They got their way, and we got the bill, along with a net increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

So it’s not surprising that AAAS is on the Washington Insider side of global warming, releasing  a report today that is the perfect 1-2-3 step-by-step how-to guide to climate change alarm.

This is how it is laid out in the counterfactually-titled AAAS report  “What We Know”: (more…)

Commonsense Climate Science and Forecasting after AR5 and the Coming Cooling.

Saturday, February 22nd, 2014

Source: Climatesense -Norpag

the coming cooling

the coming cooling

1.The Demise of the IPCC and the CAGW Delusion.

a) Overview.
In the AR5 Summary for Policymakers the IPCC glossed over  the developing cooling trend in global temperatures and so lost the last vestige of its scientific credibility and any claim to be a source of useful guidance on future climate trends for policymakers.
The IPCC’s remit was never to study climate objectively but to support the proposition  that anthropogenic CO2 was the main climate driver and that increasing emissions would produce warming with catastrophic consequences by the end of the 21st century. To their eternal discredit too many of the Western scientific establishment  abandoned common sense and scientific standards of objectivity and prudence in order to accommodate their paymasters. (more…)

95 percent of global warming models are wrong

Thursday, February 13th, 2014

Source: Daily Caller

Making a better climate model

Making a better climate model

Environmentalists and Democrats often cite a “97 percent” consensus among climate scientists about global warming. But they never cite estimates that 95 percent of climate models predicting global temperature rises have been wrong.

Former NASA scientist Dr. Roy Spencer says that climate models used by government agencies to create policies “have failed miserably.” Spencer analyzed 90 climate models against surface temperature and satellite temperature data, and found that more than 95 percent of the models “have over-forecast the warming trend since 1979, whether we use their own surface temperature dataset (HadCRUT4), or our satellite dataset of lower tropospheric temperatures (UAH).”

“I am growing weary of the variety of emotional, misleading, and policy-useless statements like ‘most warming since the 1950s is human caused’ or ‘97% of climate scientists agree humans are contributing to warming’, neither of which leads to the conclusion we need to substantially increase energy prices and freeze and starve more poor people to death for the greater good. Yet, that is the direction we are heading,” Spencer wrote on his blog. (more…)

Modeling Oceanic Carbon Uptake and Storage

Friday, December 20th, 2013

Source:  CO2 Sciencebubbles sea water

Long, M.C., Lindsay, K., Peacock, S., Moore, J.K. and Doney, S.C. 2013. Twentieth-century oceanic carbon uptake and storage in CESM1(BGC). Journal of Climate 26: 6775-6800.

The authors indicate that over the last two centuries the world’s oceans have absorbed 25-30% of the total amount of CO2 emitted to the atmosphere by fossil-fuel burning, cement production and land-use changes, citing Sabine et al. (2004) and Le Quere et al. (2009); and they say that this oceanic carbon sink has partially mitigated the CO2-induced warming of the globe by slowing the rate-of-rise in the air’s CO2 content. Hence, they state that “mechanistic representation of oceanic carbon uptake and storage is essential to robust climate prediction.” (more…)

More Utah Climate Alarmism

Wednesday, December 4th, 2013

Source:  Utah Policy. Com

The website, Utah Policy.Com, sports itself as where “political junkies get their daily fix.”  However, one current offering is a bit of fantasy, featuring another model driven “alarm in – alarm out” study (sic) concerning water resources in the Rockies:

Salt Lake City Could Dry Up Due to Climate ChangeWritten by Bryan Schott  river-flow

A recent scientific study says climate change could put a big hurt on water supplies in Salt Lake City. The Climate News Network highlights estimates from the University of Colorado at Boulder that say average temperatures are on the rise, which will have a major impact on water in Northern Utah and Salt Lake in particular. (more…)

A climate of fear, cash and correctitude

Monday, November 25th, 2013

Source:  SPPIclimate science fraud

Trashing real science to protect grants, prestige, and desire to control energy, economy, lives

by Paul Driessen and Dennis Mitchell

Earth’s geological, archaeological and written histories are replete with climate changes: big and small, short and long, benign, beneficial, catastrophic and everything in between.

The Medieval Warm Period (950-1300 AD or CE) was a boon for agriculture, civilization and Viking settlers in Greenland. The Little Ice Age that followed (1300-1850) was calamitous, as were the Dust Bowl and the extended droughts that vanquished the Anasazi and Mayan cultures; cyclical droughts and floods in Africa, Asia and Australia; and periods of vicious hurricanes and tornadoes. Repeated Pleistocene Epoch ice ages covered much of North America, Europe and Asia under mile-thick ice sheets that denuded continents, stunted plant growth, and dropped ocean levels 400 feet for thousands of years. (more…)

Social Cost of Carbon: Does EPA Rig the Game?

Sunday, November 24th, 2013

Source:  Global

by Marlo Lewis

In a new report, Heritage Foundation analysts Kevin Dayaratna and David Kreutzer examine the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy, or DICE, model — one of three computer programs the EPA uses to calculate the social cost of carbon (SCC).

The SCC is an estimate of how much damage an incremental ton of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions allegedly does to the economy over time periods as long as 300 years. The model examined by the Heritage analysts is called Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy, or DICE. Dayaratna and Kreutzer find that DICE is “flawed beyond use for policymaking.” Fittingly, they title their report: Loaded DICE: An EPA Model Not Ready for the Big Game.

They find that DICE estimates “shift substantially with reasonable alternatives to just a few assumptions” made by the EPA. Specifically: (more…)

Implications for climate models of their disagreement with observations

Friday, November 1st, 2013

Source:  Climate Etc.  curry2

by Judith Curry

How should we interpret the growing disagreement between observations and climate model projections in the first decades of the 21st century?  What does this disagreement imply for the epistemology of climate models?

One issue that I want to raise is the implications of the disagreement between climate models and observations in the 21st century, as per Fig 11.25 from the AR5.

Panel b) indicates that the IPCC views the implications to be that some climate models have a CO2 sensitivity too high — they lower the black vertical bar (indicating the likely range from climate models) to account for this.  And they add the ad hoc red stippled range, which has a slightly lower slope and lowered range that is consistent with the magnitude of the current model/obs discrepancy.  The implication seems that the expected warming over the last decade is lost, but future warming will continue at the expected (albeit slightly lower) pace. (more…)

UN climate change report dismisses slowdown in global warming

Friday, September 27th, 2013

Source:  FOX NEWS

Dr. John Christy

Dr. John Christy

The Earth has changed in “unprecedented ways” since 1950, the U.N. says, and its scientists are 95 percent certain that humans are responsible.

Yet the planet has largely stopped warming over the past 15 years, data shows — and a landmark report released Friday by the U.N.’s climate group could not explain why the mercury has stopped rising.

Global surface temperatures rose rapidly during the 70s, but have been relatively flat over the past decade and a half, rising only 0.05 degrees Celsius (0.09 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade according to data from the U.K.’s weather-watching Met Office, a trend current models of the world’s climate have been unable to predict. A draft of the report leaked in early September acknowledged that trend and put it bluntly: We simply can’t explain it.

“Models do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 10–15 years.”

But a final version of the report released Friday morning by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) strips out the failure of models and explains away the downward trend. (more…)

‘Pause’ For Thought

Wednesday, September 25th, 2013

Source: GWPF  do not pass go

by Dr David Whitehouse

The media’s handling of the ‘pause’ in global surface temperature has been a failure for science communication and science journalism.

This week’s IPCC AR5 report will state that the ‘pause’ in the global land and sea surface temperature observed since 1997 is a real and unexplained phenomenon, despite the IPCC’s head Rajendra Pachauri’s puzzling denial on the BBC Today programme (no link available yet) that it even exists.

The fact is nobody predicted it, and it’s inclusion in the IPCC report is central to any assessment of the climate, where it has been and where it is going. At a stroke this takes away one of the major lines of argument against anyone who had questioned the previous orthodoxy that the global surface temperature showed a steady and predictable rise.

It has been said many times that computer models can explain the global temperature for the last 30 years – the period of the recent global warming spell. Even if that was true some years ago it is no longer. The fact that the ‘pause’ is unexplained means that the last 30 years are not reproducible in a way that is satisfactory. (more…)