Posts Tagged ‘Climate models’

The Global Warming Statistical Meltdown

Friday, October 10th, 2014

Source: WSJ

Dr. Curry

Dr. Curry

by JUDITH CURRY

Mounting evidence suggests that basic assumptions about climate change are mistaken: The numbers don’t add up.

At the recent United Nations Climate Summit, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned that “Without significant cuts in emissions by all countries, and in key sectors, the window of opportunity to stay within less than 2 degrees [of warming] will soon close forever.” Actually, this window of opportunity may remain open for quite some time. important information about purchasing generic estrace online. to purchase estrace its medical effect will be the same as of brand name estrace ®. we ship A growing body of evidence suggests that the climate is less sensitive to increases in carbon-dioxide emissions than policy makers generally assume—and that the need for reductions in such emissions is less urgent. (more…)

Boycotting the U.N. climate summit – Awareness grows that faulty science would keep millions in the dark

Monday, September 22nd, 2014

Source: Wash Times  clomid signs of ovulation cheap clomid 2013_year

 By Willie Soon and Christopher Monckton

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sensibly declined to attend yet another climate summit — this time called by Ban Ki-moon for Tuesday in New York under the auspices of the United Nations — which profits handsomely from much-exaggerated climate scares. Chinese President Xi Jinping and German Chancellor Angela Merkel likewise intend to skip the event.

Environmentalists have complained about Mr. Modi’s decision. They say rising atmospheric carbon dioxide will cause droughts, melt Himalayan ice, and poison lakes and waterways in the Indian subcontinent. (more…)

Climate Model Credibility Gap

Tuesday, August 19th, 2014

Source:  the Resiliant Earth

by Doug L. Hoffman

Marine and terrestrial proxy records suggest that there was a peak in global warming between 10,000 and 6,000 years ago, following the end of the last glacial period. Since the Holocene Thermal Maximum, Earth has undergone global cooling. The physical mechanism responsible for this global cooling has remained unknown and doesn’t fit in with the current CO2 based climate models. Those climate models generate a robust global annual mean warming throughout the Holocene, mainly in response to rising CO2 levels and albedo changes due to retreating of ice sheets. In other words, the models disagree with reality, and when models disagree with nature the models have a credibility gap. A new paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) says this model-data inconsistency indicates a critical reexamination of both proxy data and models is called for. (more…)

June 2014 Archive of Scientific Literature Reviews

Tuesday, July 15th, 2014

Source:  NIPCC
redwood trees

http://www.nipccreport.org/issues/2014/jun.html

Old Trees: The Bigger They Are, The More Carbon They Sequester (3 Jun 2014)
New data overturn an old concept, revealing that “rapid growth in giant trees is the global norm” and “it appears to hold regardless of competitive environment”… Read More (more…)

AAAS’s Guide to Climate Alarmism aka ‘What We Know’

Saturday, March 22nd, 2014

Source:  Watts Up

AAAS' Climate Lie

AAAS’ Climate Lie

By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger

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Back in the Bush II Administration, the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) nakedly tried to nudge the political process surrounding the passage of the environmentally-horrific ethanol fuel mandate.  It hung a large banner from the side of its Washington headquarters, picturing a corn stalk morphing into a gas pump, all surrounded by a beautiful, pristine, blue ocean.  They got their way, and we got the bill, along with a net increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

So it’s not surprising that AAAS is on the Washington Insider side of global warming, releasing  a report today that is the perfect 1-2-3 step-by-step how-to guide to climate change alarm.

This is how it is laid out in the counterfactually-titled AAAS report  “What We Know”: (more…)

Commonsense Climate Science and Forecasting after AR5 and the Coming Cooling.

Saturday, February 22nd, 2014

Source: Climatesense -Norpag

the coming cooling

the coming cooling

1.The Demise of the IPCC and the CAGW Delusion.

a) Overview.
In the AR5 Summary for Policymakers the IPCC glossed over  the developing cooling trend in global temperatures and so lost the last vestige of its scientific credibility and any claim to be a source of useful guidance on future climate trends for policymakers.
The IPCC’s remit was never to study climate objectively but to support the proposition  that anthropogenic CO2 was the main climate driver and that increasing emissions would produce warming with catastrophic consequences by the end of the 21st century. To their eternal discredit too many of the Western scientific establishment  abandoned common sense and scientific standards of objectivity and prudence in order to accommodate their paymasters. (more…)

95 percent of global warming models are wrong

Thursday, February 13th, 2014

Source: Daily Caller

Making a better climate model

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Environmentalists and Democrats often cite a “97 percent” consensus among climate scientists about global warming. But they never cite estimates that 95 percent of climate models predicting global temperature rises have been wrong.

Former NASA scientist Dr. Roy Spencer says that climate models used by government agencies to create policies “have failed miserably.” Spencer analyzed 90 climate models against surface temperature and satellite temperature data, and found that more than 95 percent of the models “have over-forecast the warming trend since 1979, whether we use their own surface temperature dataset (HadCRUT4), or our satellite dataset of lower tropospheric temperatures (UAH).”

“I am growing weary of the variety of emotional, misleading, and policy-useless statements like ‘most warming since the 1950s is human caused’ or ‘97% of climate scientists agree humans are contributing to warming’, neither of which leads to the conclusion we need to substantially increase energy prices and freeze and starve more poor people to death for the greater good. Yet, that is the direction we are heading,” atarax kanadiske ingen resept atarax atarax ingen lege godkjenning. atarax kanadiske slankepiller uten perscription. atarax levert over natt er det lovlig a kjope… generic atarax Spencer wrote on his blog. (more…)

Modeling Oceanic Carbon Uptake and Storage

Friday, December 20th, 2013

Source:   how to get prednisone online no prescription in 20 days. prednisone buy cheap generic prednisone online canada why is prednisone ordered every other day CO2 Sciencebubbles sea water

Reference
Long, M.C., Lindsay, K., Peacock, S., Moore, J.K. and Doney, S.C. 2013. Twentieth-century oceanic carbon uptake and storage in CESM1(BGC). Journal of Climate 26: 6775-6800.

Background
The authors indicate that over the last two centuries the world’s oceans have absorbed 25-30% of the total amount of CO2 emitted to the atmosphere by fossil-fuel burning, cement production and land-use changes, citing Sabine et al. (2004) and Le Quere et al. (2009); and they say that this oceanic carbon sink has partially mitigated the CO2-induced warming of the globe by slowing the rate-of-rise in the air’s CO2 content. Hence, they state that “mechanistic representation of oceanic carbon uptake and storage is essential to robust climate prediction.” (more…)

A climate of fear, cash and correctitude

Monday, November 25th, 2013

Source:  SPPIclimate science fraud

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by Paul Driessen and Dennis Mitchell

Earth’s geological, archaeological and written histories are replete with climate changes: big and small, short and long, benign, beneficial, catastrophic and everything in between.

The Medieval Warm Period (950-1300 AD or CE) was a boon for agriculture, civilization and Viking settlers in Greenland. The Little Ice Age that followed (1300-1850) was calamitous, as were the Dust Bowl and the extended droughts that vanquished the Anasazi and Mayan cultures; cyclical droughts and floods in Africa, Asia and Australia; and periods of vicious hurricanes and tornadoes. Repeated Pleistocene Epoch ice ages covered much of North America, Europe and Asia under mile-thick ice sheets that denuded continents, stunted plant growth, and dropped ocean levels 400 feet for thousands of years. (more…)

UN climate change report dismisses slowdown in global warming

Friday, September 27th, 2013

Source:  FOX NEWS

Dr. John Christy

Dr. John Christy

The Earth has changed in “unprecedented ways” since 1950, the U.N. says, and its scientists are 95 percent certain that humans are responsible.

Yet the planet has largely stopped warming over the past 15 years, data shows — and a landmark report released Friday by the U.N.’s climate group could not explain why the mercury has stopped rising.

Global surface temperatures rose rapidly during the 70s, but have been relatively flat over the past decade and a half, rising only 0.05 degrees Celsius (0.09 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade according to data from the U.K.’s weather-watching Met Office, a trend current models of the world’s climate have been unable to predict. A draft of the report leaked in early September acknowledged that trend and put it bluntly: We simply can’t explain it.

“Models do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 10–15 years.”

But a final version of the report released Friday morning by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) strips out the failure of models and explains away the downward trend. (more…)

Rush: Global Warming Scientists — We Were Wrong

Tuesday, September 17th, 2013

Source:  Rush LimbaughBlunder-cover-vsmall

BEGIN TRANSCRIPT

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RUSH:  I have a bunch of global warming news in the Stack that I did not get to yesterday. It’s about the IPCC, the United Nations unit, I guess, that is the repository for the hoax.  You know the University of East Anglia in Britain.  Well, the hoaxers are there, but they reported to the UN, this guy at Penn State with his fake hockey stick graph.  These guys all reported to the IPCC.

All of these models that they constructed over the years predicted calamity by now, and the calamity never happened. I was still living in California 1985, and I’m watching This Week with David Brinkley on Sunday morning, and there’s this guy named Oppenheimer, and he’s a global warming guy. He’s saying, “We’ve got 20 years!” This is 1985, and he says, “We’ve got 20 years! I don’t know if we’re right, we’re not sure if we’re right, but we can’t take the chance! (more…)

Dialing Back the Alarm on Climate Change

Saturday, September 14th, 2013

Source: WSJ

A forthcoming report points lowers estimates on global warmingco2_and_earths_future buy dapoxetine priligy europe . is dapoxetine tablets price india therefore independent of still without hurrying or then a joyful smile lighted up address lexapro 

By MATT RIDLEY

Later this month, a long-awaited event that last happened in 2007 will recur. Like a returning comet, it will be taken to portend ominous happenings. I refer to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) “fifth assessment report,” part of which will be published on Sept. 27.

There have already been leaks from this 31-page document, which summarizes 1,914 pages of scientific discussion, but thanks to a senior climate scientist, I have had a glimpse of the key prediction at the heart of the document. The big news is that, for the first time since these reports started coming out in 1990, the new one dials back the alarm. It states that the temperature rise we can expect as a result of man-made emissions of carbon dioxide is lower than the IPPC thought in 2007.

Admittedly, the change is small, and because of changing definitions, it is not easy to compare the two reports, but retreat it is. It is significant because it points to the very real possibility that, over the next several generations, the overall effect of climate change will be positive for humankind and the planet. (more…)

MET Office on “The Pause” in Warming

Monday, July 29th, 2013

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The Pause:

The British Met Office [formerly, Metrological Office] produced three reports with titles starting with “The recent pause in global warming:” David Whitehead observes that the reports may say more about the messenger than the message. Among other things, the reports imply there is nothing unusual about the current standstill. Which would come as a surprise to the EPA and its certainty in its findings. One of the models that was run multiple times reproduces the pause – which speaks to the lack of rigor in the models.

Perhaps the models can be likened to a pot of hot water in which gelatin has been dissolved. The final form depends upon the mold in which it is cooled, with temperature data being the mold.

The reports also suggest the missing heat is hiding in the deep ocean. How a warming of the atmosphere, where the greenhouse effect takes place, thousands of feet above the surface enters the deep oceans without leaving is trace is a mystery to be explained.

The reports also state that the highest level of projected warming has been reduced, and that the most likely level is reduced by 10%. Although the terms verified and validity are mentioned, there is no effort to rigorously validate the models.  At least the Met Office recognizes there is a pause, which is something that the US Administration does not.

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Global Lukewarming: A Great Intellectual Year in 2011

Saturday, January 21st, 2012

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“Mounting evidence [of lukewarming] begins to start to make you wonder whether there is some fundamental problem between climate models and reality.”

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“To me, the most significant thing that the Climategate emails show is that the deck is stacked against the publication of research results that are critical of the established scientific consensus, and the skids are greased for papers that run in support…. Not a good situation for the advancement of science.”

“Lukewarmers” are those scientists (and others) who believe the balance of evidence is middling between “climate alarmists” (who tend to think that the global temperature rise will lie in, or even exceed, the upper half the IPCC’s 1.1°C–6.4°C range of projected temperature rise this century) and ultraskeptics, or “flatliners” (who tend to think that the addition of human-generated carbon dioxide has virtually no impact on global temperatures). (more…)

Will Replicated Global Warming Science Make Mann Go Ape?

Wednesday, January 11th, 2012

Source:  World Climate Report buy estrace now – safe online pharmacy. buy estrace cream uk.

Michael Mann

About 10 years ago, December 20, 2002 to be exact, we published a paper titled “Revised 21st century temperature projections” in the journal Climate Research order erythromycin uk ; buy cheap erythromycin; erythromycin; erythromycin; cheap baclofen uk ; buy vermox; propecia; clomid online buy; bactrim order online ; . We concluded:

Temperature projections for the 21st century made in the Third Assessment Report buy prednisone online overnight can i buy prednisone online in uk cheap prednisone (TAR) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate a rise of 1.4 to 5.8°C for 1990–2100. However, several independent lines of evidence suggest that the projections at the upper end of this range are not well supported…. The constancy of these somewhat independent results encourages us to conclude that 21st century warming will be modest and near the low end of the IPCC TAR projections.

We examined several different avenues of determining the likely amount of global warming to come over the 21st century.

One was an adjustment to climate models based on (then) new research appearing in the peer-reviewed journals that related to the strength of the carbon cycle feedbacks (less than previously determined), the warming effect of black carbon aerosols (greater than previously determined), and the magnitude of the climate sensitivity (lower than previous estimates). Another was an adjustment (downward) to the rate of the future build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide that was guided by the character of the observed atmospheric CO2 increase (which had flattened out during the previous 25 years). And our third estimate of future warming was the most comprehensive, as it used the observed character of global temperature increase—an integrator of all processes acting upon it—to guide an adjustment to the temperature projections produced by a collection of climate models. All three avenues that we pursued led to somewhat similar estimates for the end-of- the-century temperature rise. Here is how we described our findings in paper’s Abstract: (more…)