Source: William Briggs
Horst Lüdecke is a Professor of Physiker in EIKE, European Institute for Climate and Energy,
Heidelberg; Dr. Link is a physicist with EIKE; Prof. Dr. Friedrich-Karl Ewert is a geologist and member of EIKE.
Our papers [1; here] , hereafter LU, and [2; here], hereafter LL, were published almost parallel to the BEST curve of global temperature. The basic intentions of all of them are the same—to document reliably the surface temperature of the Earth from the beginning of the 19th century until the present.
LU analyzes the period of 2000 years BP until the present whereas LL examines the 20th century only. The BEST curves covers the period of 1800-2010. Quite different methods are used. BEST as a global temperature curve is a patchwork of more than 35,000 mostly short temperature series. The result is a global temperature run established by special algorithms. LU analyzes five of the longest available instrumental series and two proxies as a stalagmite and a tree ring stack. LL examines 2249 exclusively unadjusted local temperature surface records. Further, both LU and LL use a new method ,  as a combination of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), synthetic records, and Monte-Carlo simulation. With it, the exceedance probability of the naturality of an observed temperature change is evaluated. Finally, LL derives the basic overall probability that all in all the global warming of the 20th century was a natural 100-year fluctuation. The instrumental records applied by LU and LL are monthly means because the DFA requires a minimum of about 600 data points. (more…)