Posts Tagged ‘97% consensus’

Debunking the 97% ‘consensus’ on global warming

Wednesday, February 5th, 2014

Source:  American ThinkerAmerican Thinker

by Thomas Lifson

The main pillar of the warmist argument is the contention that a “consensus” exists among scientists that global warming is caused by man and threatens catastrophe. But a Canada-based group calling itself Friends of Science has just completed a review of the four main studies used to document the alleged consensus and found that only 1 – 3% of respondents “explicitly stated agreement with the IPCC declarations on global warming,” and that there was “no agreement with a catastrophic view.” (more…)

97% Study Falsely Classifies Scientists’ Papers, according to the scientists that published them

Wednesday, May 22nd, 2013

Source: Popular Technologies

The paper, Cook et al. (2013) ‘Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature‘ searched the Web of Science for the phrases “global warming” and “global climate change” then categorizing these results to their alleged level of endorsement of AGW. These results were then used to allege a 97% consensus on human-caused global warming.

To get to the truth, I emailed a sample of scientists who’s papers were used in the study and asked them if the categorization by Cook et al. (2013) is an accurate representation of their paper. Their responses are eye opening and evidence that the Cook et al. (2013) team falsely classified scientists’ papers as “endorsing AGW”, apparently believing to know more about the papers than their authors. (more…)

NEW YORK TIMES MISREPRESENTS GLOBAL WARMING SURVEYS

Tuesday, June 19th, 2012

Source: Heartlander

by James Taylor

SPPI Note — Also see:  Climate “Consensus” Opiate, The 97% Solution

The New York Times on April 30 published a news article that leads off with the assertion, “polls say 97 percent of working climate scientists now see global warming as a serious risk.” No such poll exists, but don’t expect the New York Times to make a correction any time soon.

The only poll that resembles the Times’ assertion was an online survey in which only 79 respondents listed themselves as having climate science as their primary area of expertise. This is an absurdly small number of respondents – even overlooking the less-than-scientific nature of the poll itself – from which to draw meaningful conclusions. (more…)

The phony ‘consensus’ on climate change

Monday, October 10th, 2011

Source:  Provo Daily Herald

The end is near …

… that is, for the myth that scientists have reached “consensus” on global warming and climate change caused by humans.

The theory (more accurately called a religion for the redistribution of wealth) has taken a number of body blows in recent times — although the climate-change lobby is still straining to impose its view on the world. For example, Time magazine issued a screed headlined “Who’s Bankrolling the Climate-Change Deniers?” The piece wonders why any doubts linger. Time says, “an overwhelming scientific consensus that says it does.” (more…)

Global Warming: A 98% Consensus Of Nothing

Saturday, September 10th, 2011

Source:  Forbes

by James Taylor

During last night’s Republican presidential debate, Jon Huntsman doubled down on Al Gorism, claiming skeptics of “global climate disruption” (that’s the White House’s term) are making “comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said.” Just as moderator John Harris of Politicoasked Rick Perry to name some of the scientists he agrees with, Harris should have asked Huntsman just what the “98 out of 100 climate scientists” believe.

In the “survey” to which Huntsman alluded, scientists were invited to participate in a two-question online survey. Despite what Huntsman said, not even 100 climate scientists chose to participate. The two questions were simple: 1. Have global temperatures risen during the past 200 years? and 2. Are humans a significant contributing factor to this?

Forgetting for the moment that only shameless activists or the most statistically and scientifically ignorant of persons would claim that a survey sample of only 77 scientists volunteering to participate in a survey is indicative of what the entire climate science community believes, the questions and answers themselves tell us nothing. (more…)

Prediction That Global Warming Causes More Storms Fails Empirical Testing – IPCC Climate Models Wrong

Thursday, August 11th, 2011

Source:  C3 Headlines

Read here. The IPCC’s climate models and its “consensus” of 97% of climate scientists have proven to be robustly wrong again. The prediction that global warming will cause an increase of storms with greater frequency does not hold up to empirical-based scrutiny.

Alexander et al. published a peer-reviewed study that found storms in the southeast region of Australia showing a significant reduction since the late 19th century.

…analyzed storminess across the whole of southeast (SE) Australia using extreme (standardized seasonal 95th and 99th percentiles) geostrophic winds deduced from eight widespread stations possessing sub-daily atmospheric pressure observations dating back to the late 19th century…The four researchers report that their results “show strong evidence for a significant reduction in intense wind events across SE Australia over the past century.” More specifically, they say that “in nearly all regions and seasons, linear trends estimated for both storm indices over the period analyzed show a decrease,” while “in terms of the regional average series,” they say that “all seasons show statistically significant declines in both storm indices, with the largest reductions in storminess in autumn and winter.” [Lisa V. Alexander, Xiaolan L. Wang, Hui Wan, Blair Trewin 2011: Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal]

That 97% Solution, Again

Friday, December 31st, 2010

Source:  National Post (Canada)

by Larry Solomon

[SPPI Note: Also see http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/climate_qconsensusq_opiate_the_97_solution.html ]

How do we know there’s a scientific consensus on climate change? Pundits and the press tell us so. And how do the pundits and the press know? Until recently, they typically pointed to the number 2500 – that’s the number of scientists associated with the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Those 2500, the pundits and the press believed, had endorsed the IPCC position.

To their embarrassment, most of the pundits and press discovered that they were mistaken – those 2500 scientists hadn’t endorsed the IPCC’s conclusions, they had merely reviewed some part or other of the IPCC’s mammoth studies. To add to their embarrassment, many of those reviewers from within the IPCC establishment actually disagreed with the IPCC’s conclusions, sometimes vehemently.

The upshot? The punditry looked for and recently found an alternate number to tout — “97% of the world’s climate scientists” accept the consensus, articles in the Washington Post and elsewhere have begun to claim.

This number will prove a new embarrassment to the pundits and press who use it. The number stems from a 2009 online survey of 10,257 earth scientists, conducted by two researchers at the University of Illinois. The survey results must have deeply disappointed the researchers – in the end, they chose to highlight the views of a subgroup of just 77 scientists, 75 of whom thought humans contributed to climate change.  The ratio 75/77 produces the 97% figure that pundits now tout. (more…)

Climate “Consensus” Opiate: The 97% Solution

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

Source: SPPI

by Dennis Ambler | December 14, 2010

A recent re-posting on the SPPI blog from the HockeySchtick site, with the title, “The 97% “Consensus” is only 75 Self-Selected Climatologists” was a second look[1] at the claim first made in January 2009, in a paper called “Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change” by Peter Doran and Kendall Zimmerman, from the department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois.

This was their stated aim:

“The objective of our study presented here is to assess the scientific consensus on climate change through an unbiased survey of a large and broad group of Earth scientists.”

It was roundly de-bunked at the time by several commentators and it would have been forgotten and consigned to its proper place in the dustbin, if it hadn’t been continually quoted by activists as fact.

Barry R. Bickmore, an associate professor of geological sciences at Brigham Young University, Utah, was the most recent to quote it in an op ed in the Deseret News of November 25th 2010, entitled “Global warming consensus matters”, where he attacks Utah Senator Orin Hatch for challenging consensus claims. (more…)

Climate “Consensus” Opiate, The 97% Solution

Tuesday, December 14th, 2010

Source: SPPI

A new paper posted at the main SPPI website discusses the oft repeated claim that “97 percent to 98 percent of researchers who actively publish peer-reviewed research on climate change agree that humans are significantly affecting Earth’s climate.”

A recent re-posting on the SPPI blog from the HockeySchtick site, with the title, “The 97% “Consensus” is only 75 Self-Selected Climatologists” was a second look[1] at the claim first made in January 2009, in a paper called “Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change” by Peter Doran and Kendall Zimmerman, from the department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois.

This was their stated aim:

“The objective of our study presented here is to assess the scientific consensus on climate change through an unbiased survey of a large and broad group of Earth scientists.”

It was roundly de-bunked at the time by several commentators and it would have been forgotten and consigned to its proper place in the dustbin, if it hadn’t been continually quoted by activists as fact.

The paper can be read here:  http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/climate_qconsensusq_opiate_the_97_solution.html


[1] Also see:  http://antigreen.blogspot.com/2009/11/no-consensus-about-anthropogenic-global.html.

Consensus: 97% solution

Saturday, December 11th, 2010

No Consensus about Anthropogenic Global Warming

By S. Fred Singer

There is a general impression, based on flawed analyses [Oreskes in Science 2004] that scientists support nearly unanimously the so-called scientific consensus on AGW. But more than 31,000 scientists and engineers disagree and have signed a petition that affirms their disbelief in AGW [for a listing of names see pp. 745-855, in Climate Change Reconsidered, available at www.NIPCCreport.org]

There is even widespread belief that major scientific societies, like the American Geophysical Union (AGU), have polled their membership before issuing formal Statements which essentially endorse the IPCC conclusion that the temperature rise of the past 50 years has been caused by human activity – and more specifically by the emission of greenhouse (GH) gases. Not so: This false impression seems to be due to a misleading survey result published in an AGU journal [P. Doran and M. Kendall-Zimmerman, Eos 90, 20 Jan 2009, pp 22-23].

We will discuss this survey here and the question of bias and confounding factors. The Eos authors report the response of 3146 earth scientists to two questions:

1. Has the climate warmed, cooled, or remained constant — compared to pre-1800? (more…)

SPECIAL REPORT: More Than 1000 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims – Challenge UN IPCC & Gore

Wednesday, December 8th, 2010

Source:  Climate Depot

by Marc Morano

Climate Depot Exclusive: 321-page ‘Consensus Buster’ Report set to further chill UN Climate Summit in Cancun

Link to Complete 321-Page PDF Special Report

INTRODUCTION:

More than 1000 dissenting scientists (updates previous 700 scientist report) from around the globe have now challenged man-made global warming claims made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former Vice President Al Gore. This new 2010 320-page Climate Depot Special Report — updated from 2007′s groundbreaking U.S. Senate Report of over 400 scientists who voiced skepticism about the so-called global warming “consensus” — features the skeptical voices of over 1000 international scientists, including many current and former UN IPCC scientists, who have now turned against the UN IPCC. This updated 2010 report includes a dramatic increase of over 300 additional (and growing) scientists and climate researchers since the last update in March 2009. This report’s release coincides with the 2010 UN global warming summit being held in Cancun.

The more than 300 additional scientists added to this report since March 2009 (21 months ago), represents an average of nearly four skeptical scientists a week speaking out publicly. The well over 1000 dissenting scientists are almost 20 times the number of UN scientists (52) who authored the media-hyped IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers. (more…)

The 97% “Consensus” is only 75 Self-Selected Climatologists–

Saturday, October 30th, 2010

Source:  The Hockeystick

The graphic below comes via our friends at [un]skepticalscience, assuring us that while 97% of “climate scientists think that global warming is ‘significantly’ due to human activity,” a shocking 72% of news coverage does not reflect this “consensus” and similarly 74% of the public are not convinced.

However, close examination of the source of the claimed 97% consensus reveals that it comes from a non-peer reviewed article describing an online poll in which a total of only 79 climate scientists chose to participate. Of the 79 self-selected climate scientists, 75 agreed with the notion of AGW. Thus, we find climate scientists once again using dubious statistical techniques to deceive the public that there is a 97% scientific consensus on man-made global warming; fortunately they clearly aren’t buying it.  (more…)

Happy Climate Fools’ Day

Friday, October 29th, 2010

Source:  UK Telegraph

by James Delingpole

Today is Climate Fools’ Day. To celebrate, here is an essay courtesy of Simon Barnett to show how your money is being squandered by the Coalition on “Climate Change”.

The 2008 Climate Change Act commits Britain to cutting its CO2 emissions by 80 percent by 2050 at a cost of £18.3 billion every year for the next four decades (according to the Department for Energy and Climate Change website).

This is being funded by top slicing the cash from your energy bills. The figure does not include other costs, such as the losses incurred due to the economic damage and opportunity costs of these measures. And obviously the law only seeks only to address CO2 emissions from the UK.

Without pausing to question how that 80 percent target is to be attained short of closing down the entire economy I’d just like to demonstrate the sheer scale of the cost of this bill with a little help from my beautiful assistant, H.R.H. Queen Elizabeth II. Here she is below on the fifty pound note, the largest denomination note in common circulation, and guaranteed to win friends and influence people wherever she goes…

Delingpole-she-goes-1

Also assisting me in my demonstration will be “red stick man” who is participating primarily as a visual reference to scale, but you can call him “Red Ed” if you’d like (to apportion blame). Here he is demonstrating that a million of the above notes (50 million pounds) will fit neatly onto a standard pallet… (h/t) (more…)