The 97% “Consensus” is only 75 Self-Selected Climatologists–

Source:  The Hockeystick

The graphic below comes via our friends at [un]skepticalscience, assuring us that while 97% of “climate scientists think that global warming is ‘significantly’ due to human activity,” a shocking 72% of news coverage does not reflect this “consensus” and similarly 74% of the public are not convinced.

However, close examination of the source of the claimed 97% consensus reveals that it comes from a non-peer reviewed article describing an online poll in which a total of only 79 climate scientists chose to participate. Of the 79 self-selected climate scientists, 75 agreed with the notion of AGW. Thus, we find climate scientists once again using dubious statistical techniques to deceive the public that there is a 97% scientific consensus on man-made global warming; fortunately they clearly aren’t buying it. 

Posted by MS at 8:44 AM

comments:

Let’s not lose sight of what the Doran poll asked:

1. When compared with pre-1800s levels do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?

2. Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?

Of course, the answer to #1 is “risen”, if you consider “pre-1800″ to be around 1800 or a couple of hundred years of so before, because we were int he little age age, and there’s little doubt we have warmed form that time.

The answer to number #2 depends largely on the definition of significant, but I’d guess that even Richard Lindzen would consider the co2 contribution significant, based on his forcing calculation.

And of course, warmers seem to treat a risen/yes reply to this poll as affirmation of catastrophic AGW projections, which may not be intended.

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Really now, you’ve got to be kidding me. Your link doesn’t even mention this article. You’re going to have to show actual proof that it is peer-reviewed, and if it is my opinion of the peer-review process in climate “science” will sink to a new all-time low. I didn’t even mention many other flaws in this article, including not defining the word “significant” in the polling question. For many other flaws read the 100+ comments over at WUWT.

Now, as to the second piece of trash you mention, written by a grad student and Steven Schneider, that is so hopelessly flawed that even several warmists condemned it. It’s all over the blogosphere if you care to read the details. BTW that paper was NOT peer-reviewed. PNAS is a vanity press for members of the NAS and publishes articles from NAS members WITHOUT peer review. PNAS is becoming a laughing stock with this paper and the recent Oppenheimer paper telling us “climate change” is going to flood the US with illegal aliens.

And tell me what other area of science finds it necessary to take pathetic polls on a “consensus.”

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The Doran U of Illinois Survey was reported to state:
‘In trying to overcome criticism of earlier attempts to gauge the view of earth scientists on global warming and the human impact factor, Doran and Kendall Zimmerman sought the opinion of the most complete list of earth scientists they could find, contacting more than 10,200 experts around the world listed in the 2007 edition of the American Geological Institute’s Directory of Geoscience Departments.
Experts in academia and government research centers were e-mailed invitations to participate in the on-line poll conducted by the website questionpro.com. Only those invited could participate and computer IP addresses of participants were recorded and used to prevent repeat voting. Questions used were reviewed by a polling expert who checked for bias in phrasing, such as suggesting an answer by the way a question was worded. The nine-question survey was short, taking just a few minutes to complete.
Two questions were key: have mean global temperatures risen compared to pre-1800s levels, and has human activity been a significant factor in changing mean global temperatures.
About 90 percent of the scientists agreed with the first question and 82 percent the second.
In analyzing responses by sub-groups, Doran found that climatologists who are active in research showed the strongest consensus on the causes of global warming, with 97 percent agreeing humans play a role. Petroleum geologists and meteorologists were among the biggest doubters, with only 47 and 64 percent respectively believing in human involvement. Doran compared their responses to a recent poll showing only 58 percent of the public thinks human activity contributes to global warming.
“The petroleum geologist response is not too surprising, but the meteorologists’ is very interesting,” he said. “Most members of the public think meteorologists know climate, but most of them actually study very short-term phenomenon.”
He was not surprised, however, by the near-unanimous agreement by climatologists.’

Note that the survey comprised NINE questions, about global warming, to earth scientists. Only two of the questions have ever been revealed, and the results assessed from those two alone. These two do not consider the magnitude of human influence at all. There is no mention even of CO2. Now what on earth were the other 7 questions about, to earth scientists?- Cooking? Sport? Why is the EOS article so coy?

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