Scare Tactics: Extreme Weather Events
by Dennis Ambler
Myles Allen is at it again… this nonsense produced a temperature range of 2-11 deg C last time. Now he’s trying to predict extreme weather and attribute it to AGW. He’s the one who “proved” the 2003 European heatwave was caused by anthropogenic CO2.
Don’t put your PC on stand-by, run it full blast, 24 hours a day and save the planet!
The Guardian reports that “From today, anyone with a computer and internet access can be part of a huge, pioneering climate change experiment, probing the controversial question of whether extreme weather events will become more or less common as the world warms.
By running advanced climate models while their PCs are idle, participants will estimate how often heatwaves, floods and hurricanes will strike in the next few decades. The initiative will also indicate how much of the blame for these events can be attributed to greenhouse gas emissions caused by humans.
The weatherathome.net project breaks new ground for the world’s biggest climate forecasting experiment, climateprediction.net, which has run nearly 92m years of climate modelling since September 2003, and delivered world-leading research published in journals such as Nature and used in the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s landmark 2007 report.
The key to the new project is its use for the first time of regional climate models, which can create realistic weather predictions, showing temperature, winds, rain and snow.
The global climate models divide the world into 150km squares, whereas the regional models use 50km or 25km squares.”
I have a comment in there as “cardigan”, based on my SPPI paper from September http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/extreme_weather_extreme_claims.html
My comment was #16. Whether it will stay or be removed is another matter. [It has been removed]
I thought they had given up on this nonsense. It really smacks of desperation: “we will find global warming whether you like it or not.”
The last time they tried this, Professor Allen came up with a warming range of 2 – 11 degrees C. Using their climate models which are flawed anyway, they then compound the errors by putting it through thousands of home pc’s and we pay for it via increased grants for the Oxford Climate propaganda unit.
Perhaps they should investigate why United States Extreme Record Temperatures and Ranges from NCDC show that of all fifty states, only five records occurred after 1980, whereas thirty six occurred before 1940.
Maybe they could look at why there were epic droughts in previous centuries lasting 40, 60, even a 100 years in some cases.
Then again, they could check ecclesiastical documents from Spain, referencing the period 1506 to 1900 in Toledo and Madrid, showing that “the most severe droughts were recorded during the period from the end of the 16th Century up until the 18th Century”.
They may be surprised to discover that Geologist Professor Peter Clift of Aberdeen University found that “during a warm period 6,000 years ago, the Indus was a monster river, more powerful and more prone to flooding than today. Then, 4,000 years ago, as the climate cooled, a large part of it simply dried up. Deserts appeared where mighty torrents once flowed.”
They could even look at the devastation in the 15th century when “Powerful wind storms and surging sea floods inundated lowlying North Sea coasts, drowning hundreds of thousands of people in some of the worst weather disasters ever recorded.”
In 1421, Sea inundation in Holland, submerged 72 Dutch counties, killing 100,000 people.
Moving on, sea inundation in Holland in 1530 burst sea dikes, submerging much of the country and killing 400,000 people.
The Great Storm of 1703 was the most severe storm or natural disaster ever recorded in the southern part of Great Britain. The Royal Navy lost 13 ships and 1500 seamen. Up to 15000 people died overall.
China – 15 years of storms 1851 to 1866, the low area between Beijing, Shanghai and Hankow flooded repeatedly during a disastrous 15 years of storms. It is estimated that 40 to 50 million Chinese perished in these floods.
Yellow River Flood, 1887, spring rains in China caused the Yellow River to overflow, covering 50,000 square miles and killing an estimated 1.5 million people.
The 1910 Great Flood of Paris – On January 28, the water reached its maximum height at 8.62 metres (28.28 feet), some 20 feet above its normal level. Estimates of the flood damage reached some 400 million francs, approximately 1.5 billion modern US dollars.
Central China floods of 1931 The 20th century’s worst water related disaster inundating 70,000 square miles and killing 3.5-4 million people.
In the 16th century they blamed the increasing cold and destruction of villages by advancing glaciers in the Swiss Alps on witchcraft; in Germany in 1563 sixty-three women were burned to death as witches in the small town of Weisensteig.
The Aztecs used to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of people to their rain god as thanks for a recovery from extreme weather.
These days we don’t blame witchcraft for the weather, instead we blame it on our emissions of carbon dioxide, describing it as a pollutant that must be controlled by Government taxes and vilifying anyone who dares to challenge the orthodoxy.
We ignore thousands of years of climate record, in favour of an agenda based upon a century and a half of sometimes distorted and often-disputed temperature data, coming out of a known Little Ice Age and we call it “Science”.
If the money wasted on trying to prove the chimera of AGW was re-directed towards preventive measures against natural disasters, what a lot of lives could be improved.”