Russian Scientists: ‘We Could Face Cooling Period For 200-250 Years’

Source: GWPF

Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless. –The Voice of Russia, 22 April 2013Evidently, solar activity is on the decrease. The 11-year cycle doesn’t bring about considerable climate change – only 1-2%. The impact of the 200-year cycle is greater – up to 50%. In this respect, we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040 but it won’t be as pervasive as in the late 17th century. –Yuri Nagovitsyn, Pulkovo Observatory St.Petersburg, The Voice of Russia, 22 April 2013
“There are no grounds to claim that global warming will continue till the end of this century,” said academician Vladimir Kotlyakov, head of the Institute of Geography at the Russian Academy of Sciences. “Early signs of cooling are already there and the trend may pick up in coming years.” “Human activity and industrial discharges do have a great impact on environment, but forces of nature are far more powerful,” said the scientist, who has studied Antarctic ice cores that are hundreds of thousand years old. “Climate moves in natural cycles of warmer and colder, drier and more humid times.” –Vladimir Radyuhin, The Hindu, 22 April 2013“The past cold winter of course has nothing to do with climatic changes that occur over decades-long periods,” said Dr. Yuri Nagovitsyn, academic secretary of the Pulkovo Observatory near St. Petersburg. “But our forecast is that [the] next generations will have to grapple with temperatures several degrees lower than those we have today.” –Vladimir Radyuhin, The Hindu, 22 April 2013

The sun could be on the threshold of a mini-Maunder event right now. Ongoing Solar Cycle 24 is the weakest in more than 50 years. Moreover, there is (controversial) evidence of a long-term weakening trend in the magnetic field strength of sunspots. Matt Penn and William Livingston of the National Solar Observatory predict that by the time Solar Cycle 25 arrives, magnetic fields on the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Independent lines of research involving helioseismology and surface polar fields tend to support their conclusion. “If the sun really is entering an unfamiliar phase of the solar cycle, then we must redouble our efforts to understand the sun-climate link,” notes Lika Guhathakurta of NASA’s Living with a Star Program. -–NASA News, 8 January 2013
German meteorologists say that the start of 2013 is now the coldest in 208 years – and now German media has quoted Russian scientist Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov from the St. Petersburg Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory as showing it is proof as he said earlier that we are heading for a “Mini Ice Age.” Talking to German media the scientist who first made his prediction in 2005 said that after studying sunspots and their relationship with climate change on Earth, we are now on an “unavoidable advance towards a deep temperature drop.” –German Herald, 31 March 2013

Has there ever in history been such an almighty disconnect between observable reality and the delusions of a political class that is quite impervious to any rational discussion on climate and energy policy? –Christopher Booker, The Sunday Telegraph, 27 April 2013

1) Russian Scientists: ‘We Could Face Cooling Period For 200-250 Years’ – The Voice of Russia, 22 April 2013

2) Down To Minus 45: Freezing Spring Reignites Climate Debate – The Hindu, 22 April 2013

3) Russian Scientist Warns Mini Ice Age May Have Started Already – German Herald, 31 March 2013

4) Russian Scientists: The World Is On The Threshold Of Little Ice Age – Russian Radio, 12 February 2013

5) NASA: ‘The Sun Could Be On The Threshold Of A Mini-Maunder Event Right Now’ – NASA News, 8 January 2013

6) Christopher Booker: Gap Between Reality And Green Delusions Widens – The Sunday Telegraph, 27 April 2013

1) Russian Scientists: ‘We Could Face Cooling Period For 200-250 Years’
The Voice of Russia, 22 April 2013

Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless. Some experts warn that a change in the climate may affect the ambitious projects for the exploration of the Arctic that have been launched by many countries.

Just recently, experts said that the Arctic ice cover was becoming thinner while journalists warned that the oncoming global warming would make it possible to grow oranges in the north of Siberia. Now, they say a cold spell will set in. Apparently, this will not occur overnight, Yuri Nagovitsyn of the Pulkovo Observatory, says.

“Journalists say the entire process is very simple: once solar activity declines, the temperature drops. But besides solar activity, the climate is influenced by other factors, including the lithosphere, the atmosphere, the ocean, the glaciers. The share of solar activity in climate change is only 20%. This means that sun’s activity could trigger certain changes whereas the actual climate changing process takes place on the Earth”.

Solar activity follows different cycles, including an 11-year cycle, a 90-year cycle and a 200-year cycle. Yuri Nagovitsyn comments.

“Evidently, solar activity is on the decrease. The 11-year cycle doesn’t bring about considerable climate change – only 1-2%. The impact of the 200-year cycle is greater – up to 50%. In this respect, we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040 but it won’t be as pervasive as in the late 17th century”.

Even though pessimists say global cooling will hamper exploration of the Arctic, experts say it won’t. Climate change and the resulting increase in the thickness of the Arctic ice cover pose no obstacles to the extraction of oil and gas on the Arctic shelf. As oil and gas reserves of the Arctic sea shelf are estimated to be billions of tons, countries are demonstrating more interest in the development of the Arctic. Climate change will also have no impact on the Northern Sea Route, which makes it possible to cut trade routes between Europe, Asia and America. Professor Igor Davidenko comments.

“The Northern Sea Route has never opened so early or closed so late over the past 30 years. Last year saw a cargo transit record – more than five million tons. The first Chinese icebreaker sailed along the Northern Sea Route in 2012. China plans it to handle up to 15% of its exports”.
As Russia steps up efforts to upgrade its icebreaker fleet, new-generation icebreakers are set to arrive in the years to come. No climate changes will thus be able to impede an increase in shipping traffic via the Northern Sea Route.

2) Down To Minus 45: Freezing Spring Reignites Climate Debate
The Hindu, 22 April 2013

Vladimir Radyuhin

A freezing Russian spring has reignited the climate change debate

A man runs through snow covered railway tracks during a snowstorm in Moscow, Russia, Sunday, March 24, 2013. The Russian capital was expecting an unseasonally large snowfall on Friday which local media described as a 50 year weather event.

March in Russia saw the harshest frosts in 50 years, with temperatures dropping to –25° Celsius in central parts of the country and –45° in the north. It was the coldest spring month in Moscow in half a century.

The freezing spring followed a severe winter when temperatures did not rise above –19° for 15 days in a row in Moscow. The region had double the usual amount of snow, more than three metres. As of end March, the snow depth was still 70 centimetres, the highest in more than 20 years. Two-metre deep snow covered by ice crust led to the death of many wild animals in Russia’s Far East.

LINKED TO ARCTIC

Winter started to give ground grudgingly in April but halfway through the spring, the fields in much of Russia are still blanketed in snow. Weathermen say spring is a full month behind schedule in Russia causing migrating birds to delay their return to Russia from the south.
Russia is famous for its biting frosts but this year, abnormally icy weather also hit much of Europe, the United States, China and India.

Record snowfalls brought Kiev, capital of Ukraine, to a standstill for several days in late March, closed roads across many parts of Britain, buried thousands of sheep beneath six-metre deep snowdrifts in Northern Ireland, and left more than 1,00,000 homes without electricity in Poland.

British authorities said March was the second coldest in its records dating back to 1910.
China experienced the severest winter weather in 30 years and New Delhi in January recorded the lowest temperature in 44 years. According to Rajendra Kumar Jenamani of the India Meteorological Department, winters in northern India have become colder in recent years.

A winter-weary prosecutor in Ohio indicted, even if tongue-in-cheek, the famed groundhog Phil, who had wrongly predicted an early spring this year.

With snowstorms still battering the U.S. mid-West in early April, the DTN market forecaster issued a warning last week that low temperatures may hurt winter crops in the U.S., Russia and Ukraine and delay the start of field work for spring planting in the Canadian Prairies.

Meteorologists said the unseasonably cold weather in the northern hemisphere this year was a result of the so-called atmospheric Arctic Blocs, with higher than usual air pressure over the Polar regions pushing cold currents southward. They possibly linked the phenomenon to the rapid loss of Arctic ice in recent years. Thus, the record-breaking winter colds this year would seem to support the theory of global warming.

BRITISH FORECAST

However, Britain’s Met Office in December said that global warming would take a vacation in coming years. It scaled back by 20 per cent its earlier projected rise in global temperatures through 2017. The readjusted forecast means that there will have been no global warming for two decades since the record warm year of 1998.

The new prediction was all the more significant as it came from the British meteorological establishment, a fiery champion of man-made global warming, blamed on rising industrial discharges of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide or CO2.

Critics have long accused the British Met Office of politicised bias in favour of the anthropological global warming theory.

According to BBC climate correspondent Paul Hudson, the Met Office global temperature predictions had been “regularly too warm.”

“In the 12 years to 2011, 11 out of 12 forecasts were too high — and… none were colder than expected,” he wrote in January.

CLIMATEGATE

Three years ago the Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research was hit by a “climategate” scandal when hackers released hundreds of private emails in which British climatologists appeared to discuss doctoring temperature figures to show relentless global warming and silencing dissenting scientists.

The revised temperature forecast from British meteorologists bolstered the case of man-driven climate change sceptics among Russian scientists.

“There are no grounds to claim that global warming will continue till the end of this century,” said academician Vladimir Kotlyakov, head of the Institute of Geography at the Russian Academy of Sciences. “Early signs of cooling are already there and the trend may pick up in coming years.”

“Human activity and industrial discharges do have a great impact on environment, but forces of nature are far more powerful,” said the scientist, who has studied Antarctic ice cores that are hundreds of thousand years old. “Climate moves in natural cycles of warmer and colder, drier and more humid times.”

Scientists who study solar activity also predict global cooling.

“The past cold winter of course has nothing to do with climatic changes that occur over decades-long periods,” said Dr. Yuri Nagovitsyn, academic secretary of the Pulkovo Observatory near St. Petersburg. “But our forecast is that [the] next generations will have to grapple with temperatures several degrees lower than those we have today.”

While long-term climate change remains a hotly debated issue, the no-warming forecast for the next five years from the British Met Office is good news for Dr. Vladimir Bashkirtsev, who together with a fellow solar physicist made a $10,000 bet in 2005 with climate-warming enthusiast James Annan of Japan’s Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC). The Russian scientists will win if average world temperatures for 2012-2017 are at least 0.01°C lower than they were in 1998-2003.

3) Russian Scientist Warns Mini Ice Age May Have Started Already
German Herald, 31 March 2013

As the UK shudders under temperatures 5 to 10 degrees Celsius below normal levels for this time of year a Russian scientist has repeated warnings that we are heading for a mini Ice Age.

The Met Office has warned that temperatures will remain below average until about 20 April nit just here but in the rest of the world.

German meteorologists say that the start of 2013 is now the coldest in 208 years – and now German media has quoted Russian scientist Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov from the St. Petersburg Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory as showing it is proof as he said earlier that we are heading for a “Mini Ice Age.”

Talking to German media the scientist who first made his prediction in 2005 said that after studying sunspots and their relationship with climate change on Earth, we are now on an “unavoidable advance towards a deep temperature drop.”

Building on observations made by English astronomer Walter Maunder, Dr Abdussamatov, said he had found that the Earth cools and warms in a 200-year cycles.

The last big freeze known as the Little Ice Age was between 1650 and 1850 which he said coincided with Maunder’s findings that there had been no sunspots between 1645 and 1715.

Writing in his blog, Abdussamatov said: “The last global decrease of temperature (the most cold phase of the Little Ice Age) was observed not only in Europe, North America and Greenland, but also in any other part of the world during the Maunder minimum of sunspot activity and of the total solar irradiance in 1645–1715 years.

“All channels in the Netherlands were frozen, glaciers were on the advance in Greenland and people were forced to leave their settlements, inhabited for several centuries.

“The Thames river in London and Seine in Paris were frozen over every year. Humanity has always been prospering during the warm periods and suffering during the cold ones. The climate has never been and will never be stable.”

His warning that cold weather would hit prosperity follows news that Britain is heading for an unprecedented triple-dip recession as economists warned that the severe weather gripping much of Britain threatened a second successive quarter of falling national output.

Just days after the chancellor predicted that the UK would narrowly avoid a second successive quarter of negative growth – the official definition of recession – experts warned that the combination of heavy snow and sub-zero temperatures might be a crucial factor in whether the economy expanded in the first three months of 2013.

Now the Russian scientists says the new mini Ice Age will begin next year and will last for 200 years.

“The tendency of decrease in the global Earth temperature started in 2006–2008 will temporarily pause in 2010–2012.

“The increase in TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) within a short 11-year cycle 24 is expected to temporarily compensate the decrease in TSI within the ongoing 2-century variation.

Only the decrease in TSI within the ongoing 11-year cycle 24 accompanied by continued decrease of its 2-century component in 2013–2015 will lead to stable subsequent cooling of our planet, which is expected to reach its minimum in the phase of a deep cooling by 2055–2060.

“The cooling can be similar to the one observed in the whole Europe, North America and Greenland in 1645–1715 in the period of Maunder minimum of solar luminosity and sunspot activity when the temperature will fall by 1–1.5 Celsius degrees down to the mark of the so-called Maunder minimum.

“The regular period of climatic minimum (the stage of global cooling) will last for approximately 45–65 years and the new warming will eventually come afterwards within the regular 2-century solar cycle.

“The deep cooling is expected to be regularly replaced by warming only by the beginning of 22nd century.

“A forecast of the global cooling by the middle of the 21st century and of the new 200-year cycle followed by global warming in the beginning of the 22nd century is shown on the figure.”

4) Russian Scientists: The World Is On The Threshold Of Little Ice Age
Russian Radio, 12 February 2013

Russian scientists predict the approach of a minor ice age in the year 2014. They disprove of the much-talked thesis about global warming and call it a marketing gimmick.

Global warming is actually taking place. Climate warming on Earth started from the second half of the XVIII century – since the beginning of industrial revolution. It is considered that these processes are connected with anthropogenous influences. Mankind has increased levels of CO2 emissions that cause greenhouse effect.

The Russian scientist, Vladimir Bashkin categorically does not agree with this assumption. He claims that climate changes have cyclic character and are in no way connected with the activity of people. Together with his colleague, Rauf Galiulin from the Institute of Fundamental problems of Biology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, he tries to prove that the present warming is the after-effect of our planet exiting from “minor ice age” and soon logically enough, as per geological norms we shall be entering into a new ice age.

Minor ice age happen with the frequency of 500 years apart. The previous one happened in the middle of the last millennium, when in England the river Thames got frozen, the Dutch ice-skated all the way and in our own country, foreigners were bewildered watching trees snap due to the frosts. The periods of a cold waves and warming vary approximately with an interval of 30-40years each. For example, we in Russia had a warming in the thirties of the last century when on the Northern Sea Route navigation was possible, then there was a wartime cold wave period, then there was warming in the seventies and so on . The present period of warming ended with the turn of the millennium.

The beginning of a new cycle of cold wave is connected with change in the solar activity. Intensity of rays from our main celestial star is going down which influences the climate.
Scientific researches on climate change of last geological eras force us to doubt validity of the Kyoto Protocol requirements, comments Vladimir Bashkin. The protocol limits emissions of greenhouse gases and allows trade in quotas of these emissions. Emission of carbon dioxide is a normal natural process, and not a result of exclusive activity of people, the scientist speaks.
The greenhouse effect connected with an anthropogenous factor is just 4-5% as compared to natural emissions. Eruption of a single volcano causes much more emissions. The real contributor to the greenhouse effect is ordinary water vapor. Thank God, it has not come to anybody’s mind that this too needs to be regulated.

All the worlds’ oceans contain 60 times more carbon dioxide than in the atmosphere. As the temperature rises on the planet emissions become more active. Thus, increase in levels of CO2 in the atmosphere does not precede warming, but to the contrary rather follow it.
Global warming, about which so much is been spoken in the West is not much of a scientific problem as much as a marketing gesture. If at all warming is happening, the Russian scientist explains, taking into account the underlying reasons – the demand for traditional types of fuel – coal, oil and gas should decrease, and the prices of these energy resources have to fall. And all this is not about mere science, but more of pure politics, claims Vladimir Bashkin.

Thus we should not expect for global warming, but for a global cold wave instead, the Russian scientist claims. And there is no reason to be afraid of cold waves – it will gradually develop and become notable only in the middle of the XXI century.

5) NASA: ‘The Sun Could Be On The Threshold Of A Mini-Maunder Event Right Now’
NASA News, 8 January 2013

[....] The sun could be on the threshold of a mini-Maunder event right now. Ongoing Solar Cycle 24 is the weakest in more than 50 years. Moreover, there is (controversial) evidence of a long-term weakening trend in the magnetic field strength of sunspots. Matt Penn and William Livingston of the National Solar Observatory predict that by the time Solar Cycle 25 arrives, magnetic fields on the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Independent lines of research involving helioseismology and surface polar fields tend to support their conclusion. “If the sun really is entering an unfamiliar phase of the solar cycle, then we must redouble our efforts to understand the sun-climate link,” notes Lika Guhathakurta of NASA’s Living with a Star Program.

Full story

6) Christopher Booker: Gap Between Reality And Green Delusions Widens
The Sunday Telegraph, 27 April 2013

Last week it was reported that 3,318 places in the USA had recorded their lowest temperatures for this time of year since records began. Similar record cold was experienced by places in every province of Canada. So cold has the Russian winter been that Moscow had its deepest snowfall in 134 years of observations.

Here in Britain, where we had our fifth freezing winter in a row, the Central England Temperature record – according to an expert analysis on the US science blog Watts Up With That – shows that in this century, average winter temperatures have dropped by 1.45C, more than twice as much as their rise between 1850 and 1999, and twice as much as the entire net rise in global temperatures recorded in the 20th century.

But, hang on, it wasn’t meant to be like this. Weren’t we told that, thanks to all that carbon dioxide we are pumping into the air, the world was faced with global warming; that, according to the computer models, temperatures were due to rise by at least 0.3C every decade; and that snowfall in Britain was “a thing of the past”?

Wasn’t it to meet this unprecedented threat that our MPs voted almost unanimously for the Climate Change Act? Weren’t we meant to be “giving a lead to the world” by cutting our CO2 emissions by 80 per cent in 40 years, doubling our electricity bills by heaping taxes on fossil fuels, and spending hundreds of billions on subsidising all of those 32,000 wind turbines?

Somehow oblivious to this, the world’s emissions of CO2 have continued to hurtle upward, by 50 per cent since 1990. Yet global temperatures have obstinately failed to rise. Attempts to get a global agreement on cutting CO2 emissions have collapsed. Pretty well every developed country, apart from Britain, is going flat out to build more fossil-fuelled power stations – leaving our own politicians almost alone in the world, with their fantasy that, by “decarbonising” our economy at unimaginable cost, we can still somehow give everyone else a lead in changing the earth’s climate.

Has there ever in history been such an almighty disconnect between observable reality and the delusions of a political class that is quite impervious to any rational discussion? This was superbly illustrated by two Commons debates on Thursday April 18, when for the first time we had an MP, Peter Lilley, standing up in Parliament to confront the rest of them with an utterly withering blast of reality.

On one side were those still lost in their bubble of make-believe, led by Tim Yeo, the man who earns £200,000 a year on the side lobbying for firms in the “renewable” industry. On the other was Lilley, simply mocking them all, pointing out with facts and figures just how “united in lunacy” they had become. When Yeo claimed that China has “some of the most ambitious decarbonisation plans in the world”, Lilley reminded him that China is now adding more CO2 to the air every year than all Britain’s emissions put together, and that by 2030 it will be responsible for half the world’s total emissions. So contemptuous was Lilley, and even at times so funny, that his speeches are well worth reading in full on the Commons website.
But, by golly, when one sees what childish idiocies were being parroted by all those MPs around him, it brings home just what a problem this collective flight from reality is presenting us with.

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