Rises of CO2 and Temperature Do Not Correlate

Source: SPPI

by Lee Gerhard

Correlation between rising carbon dioxide concentration and warming since about 1880 led to the current scientific impasse over the extent of human contributions to global temperature changes.  Significantly, the current practitioners of AGW hyperbole now only correlate temperature changes since 1970, omitting nearly one hundred years of carbon dioxide rise and temperature variability from their correlation.

There is very good reason for this change in time scale. Simply, there is no positive correlation between temperature change and carbon dioxide concentration over since 1880. Data demonstrate natural variations in temperature that are not correlative with carbon dioxide rise over the last 130 years. Now, adherents to AGW theory consider only the last temperature rise, since there was a correlation from 1970 to 1998.

co2 temp correlation

Figure 1. Global temperature plotted against carbon dioxide concentration, showing no correlation between the two data sets. From Joe D?Aleo, Icecap.us.

Unfortunately for the AWG theory, that correlation has been invalidated owing to stable to declining global temperatures from 1998 to 2014.

The pattern of temperature rise and fall is congruent with the Gleissberg solar cycle, suggesting a strong correlation between solar activity and global temperature (Hoyt and Schatten, 1997).

total solar radiance

Figure 2. Solar Irradiance compared to temperature, from Joseph D?Aleo,

If there had been a significant effect of carbon dioxide concentration on temperature, it would have been greatest when the absolute value of concentration was low, i. e., 1885-1930, as the effect decreases logarithmically with increased concentration (Arrhenius, 1896).

Data unequivocally falsify the theory that anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions significantly affect earth temperature.

References cited:

Arrhenius, Svente, 1896, On the Influence of Carbonic Acid upon the Temperature of the Ground: The London, Edinburgh, and Dublin Philosophic Magazine and Journal of Science, fifth series, p. 267.

D?Aleo, Joseph, 2013,  US Temperatures and Climate Factors Since 1895, http://icecap.us/images/uploads/US_Temperatures_and_Climate_Factors_since_1895.pdf, Accessed 12/9/2013

Hoyt, D. V., and K.H. Schatten, 1997, The Role of the Sun in Climate Change: Oxford University Press, New York, 279 p.