Global Temperature Is Warmest on Record, NASA’s Hansen Says: Reality Check
Source: ICECAP
by Joe DeAleo
June 2 (Bloomberg)—The global temperature this year reached its warmest on record based on a 12-month-rolling average, James Hansen, the top climate change scientist at the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, said today.
The rolling average surface temperature in April was about 0.65 of a degree Celsius (1.17 degree Fahrenheit) warmer than the 1951 to 1980 mean, according to a graph in a 37-page draft paper on the website of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. That makes it a fraction warmer than the previous peak in 2005. Absolute temperatures weren’t published in the paper.
“Record high global temperature during the period with instrumental data was reached in 2010,” Hansen and three co- authors wrote in the paper. “As for the calendar year, it is likely that the 2010 global surface temperature in the GISS analysis also will be a record.”
The figures provide the clearest evidence yet of climate change. Critics of efforts to regulate greenhouse gas emissions by industries that burn fossil fuels had pointed to another data series, compiled by the U.K. Met Office, which puts 1998 as the warmest year, as evidence that the Earth is cooling.
The document will be submitted to Reviews of Geophysics, a scientific journal, Hansen said today in an e-mail.
Climate Debate
Efforts to stem global warming have taken a knock in the past six months after a cold winter in parts of the U.S., China and Europe at the same time as errors were revealed in the United Nation’s biggest climate change report and scientists at the U.K.’s University of East Anglia were accused of suppressing dissent on the issue.
The latest findings may reinvigorate international talks on fighting global warming in Bonn this week. Those discussions stalled in Copenhagen in December. Skepticism about man-made global warming by senators including James Inhofe, an Oklahoma Republican, has helped undermine efforts to pass U.S. laws to limit greenhouse gases.
NASA’s temperature series and another compiled by the U.S. National Climatic Data Center currently have 2005 as the warmest calendar year on record. Those two, along with the Met Office’s data set, are the three main gauges of global temperature used by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to compile its assessments of global warming. Read more here.
ICECAP REALITY CHECK
There was indeed a global pop in temperatures despite the harsh (in places record) winter in the Northern Hemisphere. The El Nino was at least a moderate strength El Nino. It and the record negative arctic oscillation helped make the higher latutudes warmer and suppress clouds and winds in the subtropics and tropics, helping keep water temperatures in this the widest latitudal belt above normal. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation which went into its warm mode in 1995 rebounded from a slide with the helps of these effects. Drought in India and southeast Asia after two successive monsoon failures related to low solar, high latitude volcanoes and summer El Ninos also contributed to the pop.
As La Nina comes on and the PDO dives, and tropical activity and increasing winds in the Atlantic cool the waters, the global temperature will dive again like it did in the late 1990s and late 200s.
Hansen, NOAA NCDC, Hadley CRU/UKMO all have reason to find warmth and verify their scary projections from their Tinkertoy models despite the many shortcomings found in these models. Hansen has a proven history of manipulating data to come closer to verifying projections.
E-mail messages obtained by CEI in a Freedom of Information Act request reveal that NASA concluded that its own climate data was inferior to those of the CRU and NOAA. In 2007, a USA Today reporter asked if NASA’s data “was more accurate” than other climate-change data sets, NASA’s Dr. Reto A. Ruedy replied with an unequivocal NO! “My recommendation to you is to continue using NCDC’s data for the U.S… and [East Anglia] data for the global…”
NASA’s GIStemp program recalculates old temperatures with every new data run. Like CRU and NOAA, NASA has managed to cool off the prior warm period (like Michael mann did with the Medieval Warm Period. See below (enlarged here) how in 1980, Hansen had the 1960s 0.3C colder than the 1950s. By 1987, it was just 0.05C colder and by 2007 it had become 0.05C warmer.
This was also done with the 1930s and 1940s, a notoriously warm period where most of the nation (and North America) heat records were set. See below (enlarged here)
NASA makes frequent changes to the data as noted. John Goetz in a guest post on Watts Up With That noted how NASA changed 20% of the station data 16 times in the 2 1/2 years ending in 2007. Recall also in 2007, Steve McIntyre found a ‘millennium bug’ in the NASA software that caused excess warmth post 2000. NASA quickly adjusted the data down 0.12 to 0.15C. This also pushed 1934 back into the lead as the warmest year that lasted all of one year (NASA kept the old data the same because the world was watching) before NASA returned all that warmth and then some. See below (enlarged here)
Hansen is a man on a mission to save the planet and this includes civil disobedience. As Michael Goldfarb described it “Recently, but presumably still in his capacity as a private citizen and defender of the Earth, Hansen wrote an op-ed for the Guardian in which he described coal-fired power plants as “factories of death.” This on the heels of testifying in a British court on behalf of six Greenpeace activists on trial for causing $60,000 in criminal damage to a coal-fired power station in England.” Could this civil disobedience carry over to the data?
The cooling with the recent two year La Nina has put pressure on NOAA and NASA to accelerate adjustments – NOAA removed urban heat island adjustments for the USHCN in 2007 and announced a new warmer version of GHCN (V3) coming soon. NASA’s adjustment upward of this decade last year (shown in table above as much as 0.19C for a year) put them in a position to make the claim in the release.
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Additional comments from Dennis Ambler:
Maybe Hansen is using the same methodology that he used in that 2005 claim:
“In 2005, Hansen ranked the year as the warmest on record (GISS). NCDC said it was the second warmest. However, NCDC also noted that uncertainties arising from sparse observations or measurement biases made 2005 statistically indistinguishable from the warmest year, 1998, as well as from other years such as 2002 and 2003. (In spite of these uncertainties, the public claim was still warmest on record).
James Hansen (NASA) thinks 2005 was the hottest year ever.
“A surprising Arctic warm spell is responsible for a 2005 that was likely the warmest year since instrument recordings began in the late 1800s”, added Hansen, who nevertheless admitted that the analysis had to estimate temperatures in the Arctic from nearby weather stations because no direct data were available.
As a result, he said, “we couldn’t say with 100 percent certainty that it’s the warmest year, but I’m reasonably confident that it was”. Hansen and other researchers wrote in the analysis that “the inclusion of estimated Arctic temperatures is the primary reason for our rank of 2005 as the warmest year.” (Mercosur News Agency, 27/01/06). (My emphases, the public claims again do not reflect the inherent uncertainty).
There is an interesting FAQ about Surface Air Temperature (SAT), on the NASA web site. I have included a couple of points below, but the whole piece can be read here: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/abs_temp.html
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- To measure SAT we have to agree on what it is and, as far as I know, no such standard has been suggested or generally adopted.
- For the global mean, the most trusted models produce a value of roughly 14 Celsius, i.e. 57.2 F, but it may easily be anywhere between 56 and 58 F and regionally, let alone locally, the situation is even worse.
(Responsible NASA Official: James E. Hansen, 2005-07-12)
Tags: Dennis Ambler, GISS temperature manipulation, Jim Hansen, NASA Hockey Stick