This paper summarizes the results of several analyses that investigate the global impacts on various determinants of human well-being, including malaria, agricultural productivity, water stress, sea level rise, and heating and cooling demand through 2100 under a “no climate change” scenario and two “policy” scenarios. The first policy scenario, which serves as the “baseline,” assumes no climate change policies and would increase the global mean temperature by 4 °C above the pre-industrial level by 2100. The second is a Mitigation scenario which would stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at around 450 ppm CO2-equivalent leading to a 2 °C increase in 2100. Its aim is to assess the effects of an aggressive mitigation policy on the global impacts of climate change. (more…)
Archive for August, 2011
Zhang, D.D., Lee, H.F., Wang, C., Li, B., Zhang, J., Pei, Q. and Chen, J. 2011. Climate change and large-scale human population collapses in the pre-industrial era. Global Ecology and Biogeography 20: 520-531.
According to Zhang et al. (2011), it has long been assumed that “deteriorating climate” — defined as either cooling or warming — “could shrink the carrying capacity of agrarian lands, depriving the human population of sufficient food,” with “population collapses (i.e., negative population growth)” the unavoidable consequence; but they say that “this human-ecological relationship has rarely been verified scientifically,” noting that at the highend of the temperature spectrum, “evidence of warming-caused disaster has never been found.” (more…)
Nkurunziza, H. and Pilz, J. 2011. Impact of increased temperature on malaria transmission in Burundi. International Journal of Global Warming 3: 77-87.
Authors Nkurunziza and Pilz (2011) — a mathematician and a statistician — introduce their study by stating that “malaria is the main public health problem in the area of Burundi,” citing Protopopoff et al. (2007) and the World Health Organization (2005), while further noting that malaria is responsible for some two million clinical cases that result in more than 15,000 deaths each year, including 50% of all hospital deaths of children under five years of age.
Nkurunziza and Pilz then proceed to employ Bayesian Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to assess the impact of an increase in temperature on malaria transmission, which in addition to monthly maximum and minimum temperature data, utilized monthly rainfall and humidity data, as well monthly malaria morbidity data for the period 1996-2007, all of which were obtained for each province of the country. (more…)
The Texas power grid operator has scrambled this week to meet soaring electricity demand in the face of a brutal heat wave, and residents of the second most populous U.S. state are one power plant shut-down away from rolling blackouts.
Power demand for Electric Reliability Council of Texas, Inc, or ERCOT, which runs the power grid for most of the state, hit three consecutive records this week as Texans cranked up air conditioners to escape one of the hottest summers on record.
The grid operator on Thursday cut power to some big industrial users, and businesses and households face a repeat of the rolling blackouts they faced in February, when a bitter cold snap interrupted power supplies. (more…)
Source: National Review on Line
Here?s my take on the puzzle of Obama?s leadership style. Obama is still every inch the Alinskyite organizer. He talks about uniting, even as he deliberately polarizes. He moves incrementally toward radical left goals, but never owns up to his ideology. Instead, he tries to work indirectly, by way of the constituencies he seeks to manipulate. (more…)
by Niger Innis and Bishop Harry Jackson, Jr.
This kind of ?environmental justice? we can do without.
From New York, Washington and Atlanta to Chicago, St. Louis and Dallas, America is baking in a furnace. As millions swelter and gasp, they thank their lucky stars for air-conditioned cars, homes, offices and other places of refuge. And for the reliable, affordable electricity that makes AC possible.
Previous generations weren?t so fortunate. When a record heat wave slammed the nation in July 1936, Midwest temperatures hit 100-107 for a week. With most homes and businesses lacking even fans in this pre-AC era, millions suffered heat prostration. In Wisconsin, 449 died. Nationwide, thousands perished.
Now the EPA and NAACP want to send America back to the ?good old days.? Under a perverse notion of ?environmental justice,? they are promoting tough new air quality rules that would shut down dozens of coal-fired power plants that make affordable AC possible for millions of poor and minority families. (more…)