Archive for December, 2010

That 97% Solution, Again

Friday, December 31st, 2010

Source:  National Post (Canada)

by Larry Solomon

[SPPI Note: Also see http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/climate_qconsensusq_opiate_the_97_solution.html ]

How do we know there’s a scientific consensus on climate change? Pundits and the press tell us so. And how do the pundits and the press know? Until recently, they typically pointed to the number 2500 – that’s the number of scientists associated with the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Those 2500, the pundits and the press believed, had endorsed the IPCC position.

To their embarrassment, most of the pundits and press discovered that they were mistaken – those 2500 scientists hadn’t endorsed the IPCC’s conclusions, they had merely reviewed some part or other of the IPCC’s mammoth studies. To add to their embarrassment, many of those reviewers from within the IPCC establishment actually disagreed with the IPCC’s conclusions, sometimes vehemently.

The upshot? The punditry looked for and recently found an alternate number to tout — “97% of the world’s climate scientists” accept the consensus, articles in the Washington Post and elsewhere have begun to claim.

This number will prove a new embarrassment to the pundits and press who use it. The number stems from a 2009 online survey of 10,257 earth scientists, conducted by two researchers at the University of Illinois. The survey results must have deeply disappointed the researchers – in the end, they chose to highlight the views of a subgroup of just 77 scientists, 75 of whom thought humans contributed to climate change.  The ratio 75/77 produces the 97% figure that pundits now tout. (more…)

Time for global warming lobby to admit they could be wrong, says meteorologist

Thursday, December 30th, 2010

Source:  UK Telegraph

Here’s something you’ll never hear from the Met Office. Joe Bastardi, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, has laid into the the global warming lobby for making absurd claims, especially their assertion that the cold weather is caused by global warming.

First he told Fox Business Network last week that: “These folks claiming that global warming is causing severe cold – that’s like the kid on the playground who doesn’t get his way and takes his ball home”. In fact, the cold weather “is predictable if you study cycles, if you study climatology… and don’t just say everything is global warming”.

And now he’s continued the offensive on his blog this week, writing that: (more…)

IPCC Prediction Failure — Again

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

by Robert Sheaffer

The UN’s “Nobel Prize Winning” IPCC Report in 2007, predicted “warmer northern winters” for Europe. As summarized in this UN Press Release of April, 2007, we should expect to see “the ongoing thawing of European glaciers and permafrost, the delayed winter freeze of rivers and lakes, the lengthening of growing seasons, the earlier spring arrival of migratory birds… In addition to warmer winters, Europe’s northern regions will experience more precipitation and run-off. The expansion of forests and agricultural productivity will be accompanied by greater flooding, coastal erosion, loss of species and melting of glaciers and permafrost.”

http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=504&ArticleID=5560&l=en

A classic case of a “failed prediction.” Theories making predictions that fail are called “refuted.”

The Expanding Monsoon Rainforests of Australia

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

Source:  CO2 Science

Reference
Bowman, D.M.J.S., Murphy, B.P. and Banfai, D.S. 2010. Has global environmental change caused monsoon rainforests to expand in the Australian monsoon tropics? Landscape Ecology 25: 1247-1260.

Background
Citing the work of Bowman et al. (2001), Banfai and Bowman (2006), Bowman and Dingle (2006) and Brook and Bowman (2006), the authors write that “a large research program in the Australian monsoon tropics has concluded that monsoon rainforests have expanded within the savanna matrix” since “the middle of the last century,” while noting that a similar trend “has been emulated throughout the tropics worldwide,” citing the work of Schwartz et al. (1996), Guillet et al. (2001), Puyravaud et al. (2003) and Wigley et al. (2009). And they say that this phenomenon has been “suggested to be linked to a long-term trend towards wetter climates, atmospheric CO2 enrichment, and changed fire regimes,” although they remark that the observed forest expansion in Australia “is remarkable, being contrary to the widely accepted view that fire limits the extent of rainforests.” (more…)

Is Global Warming Driving Outbreaks of Tick-Borne Diseases?

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

Source: CO2 Science

In a brief review of the roles played by various factors that may influence the spread of tick-borne diseases, Sarah Randolph (2010) of the University of Oxford’s Department of Zoology in the United Kingdom begins by noting that many vector-borne diseases “have shown marked increases in both distribution and incidence during the past few decades, just as human-induced climate change is thought to have exceeded random fluctuations.” And she writes, in this regard, that “this coincidence has led to the general perception that climate change has driven disease emergence,” which concept has been promoted by numerous climate-alarmist publications and pronouncements. However, she wisely notes that “climate change is the inevitable backdrop for all recent events,” most of which no one would ever even dream of attributing to how the planet’s temperature may have behaved concurrently.

(Well, actually, we may have to recant on that point, as almost every negative thing imaginable has been attributed to global warming by one climate alarmist or another, at one time or another, over the past several years … but we digress.) (more…)

Rear Mirror: Lizard Extinctions?

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

Source: CO2 Science

Reference
Chamaille-Jammes, S., Massot, M., Aragon, P. and Clobert, J. 2006. Global warming and positive fitness response in mountain populations of common lizards Lacerta vivipara. Global Change Biology 12: 392-402.

Background
Many are the predictions of species extinctions arising from warming-induced changes in the characteristics of regions to which the species are endemic. See our major report – The Specter of Species Extinction: Will Global Warming Decimate Earth’s Biosphere? – for many examples of the concept, as well as a multitude of evidences that reveal it to be wholly unrealistic. Then, read on to discover another such example. (more…)

Climate “Consensus” Opiate: The 97% Solution

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

Source: SPPI

by Dennis Ambler | December 14, 2010

A recent re-posting on the SPPI blog from the HockeySchtick site, with the title, “The 97% “Consensus” is only 75 Self-Selected Climatologists” was a second look[1] at the claim first made in January 2009, in a paper called “Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change” by Peter Doran and Kendall Zimmerman, from the department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois.

This was their stated aim:

“The objective of our study presented here is to assess the scientific consensus on climate change through an unbiased survey of a large and broad group of Earth scientists.”

It was roundly de-bunked at the time by several commentators and it would have been forgotten and consigned to its proper place in the dustbin, if it hadn’t been continually quoted by activists as fact.

Barry R. Bickmore, an associate professor of geological sciences at Brigham Young University, Utah, was the most recent to quote it in an op ed in the Deseret News of November 25th 2010, entitled “Global warming consensus matters”, where he attacks Utah Senator Orin Hatch for challenging consensus claims. (more…)

Do We Care if 2010 is the Warmist Year in History?

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

Source: Wattsup

Guest Post by Ira Glickstein

According to the latest from NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies), 2010 is shaping up to be “the warmest of 131 years”, based on global data from January through November. They compare it to 2005 “2nd warmest of 131 years” and 1998 “5th warmest of 131 years”.

We won’t know until the December data is in. Even then, given the level of noise in the base data and the wiggle room in the analysis, each of which is about the same magnitude as the Global Warming they are trying to quantify, we may not know for several years. If ever. GISS seems to analyze the data for decades, if necessary, to get the right answer. (more…)

NASA GISS – Adjusting the Adjustments

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

Source:  Climate Audit

I don’t feel hugely energetic right now in terms of writing anything very complicated. As a simple exercise, I decided to quickly revisit the everchanging Hansen adjustments, a topic commented on acidly by E.M. Smith (Chiefio) in many posts – also see his interesting comments in the thread at a guest post at Anthony‘s, a post which revisited the race between 1934 and 1998 – an issue first raised at Climate Audit in 2007 in connection with Hansen’s Y2K error.

As CA readers recall, Hansen’s Y2K error resulted in a reduction of US temperatures after 2000 relative to earlier values. The change from previous values is shown in red in the graphic below; the figure also shows (black) remarkable re-writing of past history since August 2007 – a rewriting of history that has increased the 2000-6 relative to the 1930s by about 0.3 deg C.

This impacts comparisons made in 2007 between GISS and CRN1-2 stations. At the time, it was noted that GISS adjustments for UHI resulted in the GISS US temperature anomaly having quite a bit in common with a TOBS average from Anthony’s CRN1-2 stations.

Critics of Anthony’s surfacestations.org project commented on this rather smugly – too smugly given the large differences with NOAA and CRU versions in the US and the incoherence of Hansen’s adjustments outside the US. The post-2007 adjustments to GISS adjustments change this. (more…)

University Study Confirms Renewable Energy Isn’t Economically Feasible

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

Source:  Red State

Colorado State University recently completed a study on the economic feasibility of increasing the usage of renewable energy. The results of this study were published in the world-renowned science periodical, The Coloradoan. Another stimulus-funded study of the obvious? No, what we have here is simply a heavy dose of reality for academicians who aren’t willing to match their rhetoric with their pocketbook. Some of the quotes in this article are quite humorous. Fort Collins campus President Tony Frank acknowledges that the 2008 plan to “rapidly” become carbon-neutral won’t be a reality for decades because the university can’t afford to make major changes right now. It took them two years to figure this out? (more…)

Video: Bureaucrats Gone Wild in Cancun

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

http://www.breitbart.tv/climate-bureaucrats-gone-wild/

Global Warming hypocrisy on display at UN IPCC COP 16 in Cancun Mexico.

SPPI Paper: Contraction and Convergence

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

Contraction and Convergence

Shut down the Developed Nations, transfer our Wealth and Technology to the Developing Nations

by Dennis Ambler | December 22, 2010

We are entreated daily that the West must cut its industrial base because the planet is in danger from our CO2 emissions and our politicians happily fall into line to impose draconian energy taxes. There is somewhat of a disconnect when we read that industrialisation is proceeding apace in developing nations, with money from the industrialised nations. The announcement from Fiat, Italy, is another example of global corporations moving their operations to the developing world where they can emit to their heart’s content without penalty and get paid by us for doing so, with money we give to the UN for “development”.

“Fiat announced this week that it plans to invest 3 billion Real (approx. 1.7 billion USD) to build a second plant in Brazil, the carmaker’s No. 2 market after its native Italy.” (more…)

Cancun: Global Hysteria, Wealth Redistribution

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

Source:  Cancun: Global Hysteria, Wealth Redistribution

by Alex Newman

Thousands of climate dignitaries representing almost every national government on Earth flew to Cancun, Mexico, for the great event. Security precautions were extensive: Battleships could be seen from the beach while thousands of soldiers and police lined the jam-packed roads. It was time for the 16th “Conference of the Parties,” or COP16 for short. The annual summit, which was held this year from November 29 through December 10, is an extravaganza of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, or UNFCCC. The previous year’s COP15 in Copenhagen was massive — over 50,000 attendees in all, not counting protesters. It was well publicized, too. But after the spectacular failure of COP15 to deliver a binding climate treaty, and with little hope of securing one this time, expectations for COP16 were purposefully set low. (more…)

Cancun: The Abdication of the West

Tuesday, December 28th, 2010

Source:  SPPI

The Abdication of the West

by The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley | December 9, 2010

from Cancun, Mexico

I usually add some gentle humor to these reports. Not today. Read this and weep. Notwithstanding the carefully-orchestrated propaganda to the effect that nothing much will be decided at the UN climate conference here in Cancun, the decisions to be made here this week signal nothing less than the abdication of the West. The governing class in what was once proudly known as the Free World is silently, casually letting go of liberty, prosperity, and even democracy itself. No one in the mainstream media will tell you this, not so much because they do not see as because they do not bl**dy care.

The 33-page Note (FCCC/AWGLCA/2010/CRP.2) by the Chairman of the “Ad-Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Co-operative Action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”, entitled Possible elements of the outcome, reveals all. Or, rather, it reveals nothing, unless one understands what the complex, obscure jargon means. All UNFCCC documents at the Cancun conference, specifically including Possible elements of the outcome, are drafted with what is called “transparent impenetrability”. The intention is that the documents should not be understood, but that later we shall be told they were in the public domain all the time, so what are we complaining about? (more…)

Things more worrisome than AGW: Foreign Energy Blackmail

Tuesday, December 28th, 2010

Source:  TownHall

Twenty-two years ago last week, Pan Am Flight 103 exploded over Scotland. The terrorist attack killed 270 people, including 189 Americans and 11 Scots on the ground in the small village of Lockerbie.

After a comprehensive international investigation and a lengthy trial held in the Netherlands, three Scottish judges found former Libyan intelligence agent Abdel Basset Ali al-Megrahi guilty of the 270 murders in 2001 and sentenced him to life in prison.

He served a mere eight years.

On Aug. 20, 2009, Scottish Justice Minister Kenny MacAskill authorized the “compassionate” release of al-Megrahi on the grounds that prostate cancer left al-Megrahi with less than three months to live. (more…)